G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yeni bir haftal\u0131k zirveye \u00e7\u0131karak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n genel \u00e7apta zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla 77,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, dolar cinsinden fiyatlanan emtialar\u0131 (ham maddeler) destekledi; XAG\/USD (g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\/dolar paritesi) de buna dahil.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tamamen yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 halinde \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iki hafta durduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran ise iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesi kabul etti\u011fini belirtirken, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130slamabad kentinde ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fin iki hafta boyunca sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama Ham Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu durum Dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015ftururken g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, y\u00fckseli\u015fi devam ettirecek yeni al\u0131mlar\u0131n zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi; bu da yak\u0131n vadede ek kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, faiz getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131kt\u0131r; bu nedenle faiz beklentileri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde genelde de\u011fer kazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Genel olarak g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131; jeopolitik riskler, durgunluk (ekonomide yava\u015flama) korkular\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki hareketler, borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131ndan (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) gelen talep, madencilik arz\u0131 ve geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm etkileyebilir. Elektronik ve g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi gibi sanayi kullan\u0131m\u0131 talebi de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00e7o\u011fu zaman alt\u0131n\u0131 takip eder; alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 (iki metalin g\u00f6reli de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en oran) kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldaki diplomatik rahatlaman\u0131n aksine bug\u00fcn daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; DXY endeksi (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 106\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Fed, yap\u0131\u015fkan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 veriyor. Son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,1 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekler ve genelde g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in olumsuz bir fakt\u00f6rd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Faiz ortam\u0131 zorlu olsa da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi talebi izleniyor. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel g\u00fcne\u015f paneli kurulumlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15 artt\u0131; elektrikli ara\u00e7 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden gelen talep de tahminleri a\u015ft\u0131. Bu t\u00fcketim, fiyatta a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergedir ve \u015fu anda 88:1 ile iki y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n. Tarihsel olarak 85\u2019in \u00fczerindeki oranlar, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131na g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu durum, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131na k\u0131yasla ucuz kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eder; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m veya iki varl\u0131k aras\u0131nda fark i\u015flemine (pair trade: iki enstr\u00fcmanda ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak g\u00f6reli hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sanayi g\u00fcc\u00fcnden yararlan\u0131rken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolara kar\u015f\u0131 riski dengeleyen stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, sanayi talebinin veya ani bir jeopolitik geli\u015fmenin tetikleyece\u011fi olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunabilir. B\u00f6ylece risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r ve alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel ortalamas\u0131na geri d\u00f6nmesi (mean reversion: uzun vadeli ortalamaya yakla\u015fma) ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, zay\u0131flayan dolar\u0131n deste\u011fiyle 77 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde haftal\u0131k zirve g\u00f6rd\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ate\u015fkes petrol\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp Fed faiz beklentisini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Ancak DXY 106 ve alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 88:1 f\u0131rsat sinyali.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44174"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44174\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}