Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 bombalamaya iki hafta ara vermeyi kabul etmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.815 dolara y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, \u0130ran ve \u0130srail\u2019i i\u00e7eren bir ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Trump, Sal\u0131 gecesi Truth Social\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131mda, iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 kabul etmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Beyaz Saray\u2019dan bir yetkili, \u0130srail\u2019in de ate\u015fkesi kabul etti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda arabulucu olarak tan\u0131mlanan Pakistan, Trump\u2019tan iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesi onaylamas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n K\u00f6rfez petrol\u00fcn\u00fc engellemesine ba\u011fl\u0131 bir s\u00fcreyi uzatmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi. Bu talep, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma artarken geldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 bir yetkili, ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 en fazla 15 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde netle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in ABD ile \u0130slamabad\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran, toplant\u0131n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve iki taraf\u0131n anla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde uzat\u0131labilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; bu da arzla ilgili endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131 ve enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genel seviyesi) yukar\u0131 itti. Enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesi, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirme alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilir; bu da faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131na talebi etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 (toplant\u0131da ne konu\u015fuldu\u011funu g\u00f6steren ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 kay\u0131t) izliyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.815 dolar civar\u0131ndayken, bu iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes, son d\u00f6nemde \u201csava\u015f primi\u201d ile g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n metalde k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: \u00f6rne\u011fin put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya bear call spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla call opsiyonlar\u0131 kurup, y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6rerek kurulan strateji) olu\u015fturmak. 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00f6nceki rekorlar\u0131 da a\u015fan sert y\u00fckseli\u015f, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fla (riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme) beslenmi\u015fti; bu haberle birlikte bu talebin geri d\u00f6nmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. Abluka d\u00f6neminde WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu hareket, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yordu. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapanlar) beklenen arz rahatlamas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ileride belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) k\u0131sa pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir veya b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) put opsiyonu alabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasada genel olarak \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz. VIX endeksi (S&P 500 i\u00e7in korku endeksi; piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131ras\u0131nda muhtemelen 35\u2019in \u00fczerindeki kriz seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u015fimdi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerini veya call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak, risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesine do\u011frudan oynayan bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
Ancak ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ge\u00e7ici; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler 15 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde kolayca \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilir. Bu da petrol ve alt\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin, gerilimin yeniden artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha ucuz ve daha uzun vadeli koruma (riskten korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon) almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kapsamda, yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay vadeli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan call opsiyonlar\u0131 (\u201cout-of-the-money\u201d; \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan opsiyon) takip edilebilir; ama\u00e7, gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmaya pozisyon almakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu yumu\u015fama, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor; bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tutanaklar bu yeni \u00e7er\u00e7evede okunacak. 2025\u2019te enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, man\u015fet enflasyonu (toplam enflasyon; \u00e7ekirdek kalemler hari\u00e7 tutulmadan) %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde tutarak faiz indirimlerini engellemi\u015fti. Bar\u0131\u015f kal\u0131c\u0131 olur ve petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u00fcrerse, enflasyon beklentileri zay\u0131flayabilir ve bu durum hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri (endeksin gelecekteki fiyat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u00e7in destekleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 iki hafta ertelemesi ve ate\u015fkes\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u015fart\u0131 haberleriyle 4.815 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Petrol ve VIX\u2019te geri \u00e7ekilme beklentisi, Fed tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi odakta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44173\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}