Donald Trump, Truth Social\u2019da ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bombard\u0131man ve sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 iki hafta s\u00fcreyle ask\u0131ya alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Bu aran\u0131n, Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015eahbaz \u015eerif ve Mare\u015fal As\u0131m Munir ile yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fini, ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 **tam, derhal ve g\u00fcvenli \u015fekilde** a\u00e7may\u0131 kabul etmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Plan\u0131 iki tarafl\u0131 bir **ate\u015fkes** olarak tan\u0131mlayan Trump, ABD ordusunun hedeflerinin kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u0130ran\u2019dan 10 maddelik bir \u00f6neri ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, iki haftal\u0131k s\u00fcrenin anla\u015fman\u0131n sonu\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in zaman tan\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD hisseleri y\u00fckseldi; S&P 500 %1,50\u2019nin, Nasdaq 100 ise %1,70\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Alt\u0131n da %1,50\u2019den fazla y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.770 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol %7,50\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 108 dolardan 101 dolara geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda %0,47 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,51 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Haberde \u201crisk-on\u201d ve \u201crisk-off\u201d terimleri de a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor:
\n– **Risk-on (risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131):** Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi d\u00f6nem. Bu ortamda genelde hisse senetleri ve baz\u0131 emtia (hammaddeler) ile **emtia para birimleri** (\u00f6r. AUD, CAD, NZD) g\u00fc\u00e7lenir.
\n– **Risk-off (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f):** Belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00f6nem. Bu durumda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman tahvillere (devlet bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131), alt\u0131na, ABD dolar\u0131na, Japon yenine ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131na talep artar.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes duyurusu piyasaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201crisk-on\u201d havas\u0131 verdi; ancak bu hava k\u0131r\u0131lgan. WTI petroldeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve hisselerdeki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f rahatlama al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tsa da, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 14 g\u00fcn tamamen m\u00fczakerelere ba\u011fl\u0131. **T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemde \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d gibi iki uca a\u00e7\u0131k bir sonuca g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekir; oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019daki %7,50\u2019lik anl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131, petrol **opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Sonuca bahis oynamadan, iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazanmay\u0131 hedefleyen **uzun straddle** veya **strangle** gibi stratejiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir (ikisi de opsiyon kombinasyonu; straddle ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131, strangle farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 kullan\u0131r). K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir dar bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 temel de\u011fi\u015fken olmaya devam ediyor; anla\u015fma bozulursa fiyatlar \u00f6nceki seviyelerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 gibi hisse endekslerinde son s\u0131\u00e7rama, muhtemelen **CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX)** \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratt\u0131. VIX, S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan \u201cpiyasan\u0131n korku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d olarak bilinir; d\u00fc\u015fmesi, opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131n\u0131n) ucuzlamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. 2022\u2019de Rusya-Ukrayna gerilimini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik ilk g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonras\u0131 VIX\u2019in bir haftada %15\u2019ten fazla geriledi\u011fi benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler, SPX \u00fczerinde **put spread** satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyon kombinasyonu; iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put ile risk s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r) ve piyasa korkusu azald\u0131k\u00e7a prim geliri hedeflenir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki gerileme, g\u00fcvenli limandan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor; bu da emtia para birimlerine destek verir. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 takip etmek i\u00e7in, \u00f6rne\u011fin Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 Japon yenine kar\u015f\u0131 almak (AUD\/JPY uzun) gibi i\u015flemler izlenebilir. Tarihsel olarak bu parite S&P 500 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc pozitif ili\u015fki g\u00f6sterir; bu nedenle d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda risk-on temas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n hisselerle birlikte ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselerek 4.800 dolara yakla\u015fmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n klasik \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, zay\u0131f ABD dolar\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonu fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD T\u00dcFE verilerinde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bar\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bu bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Jeopolitik risk primi (gerilim nedeniyle fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) azalsa bile, enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korunma talebinin s\u00fcrmesine oynayanlar alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri (GC) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iki hafta ask\u0131ya alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn derhal a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu duyurdu. Hisseler ve alt\u0131n y\u00fckseldi, WTI sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, DXY geriledi, oynakl\u0131k g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44165\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}