Donald Trump, Truth Social\u2019da ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bombard\u0131man ve sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iki haftal\u0131\u011f\u0131na durduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Bu aran\u0131n, Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015eahbaz \u015eerif ve Orgeneral As\u0131m M\u00fcnir ile yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fini belirtti. Duraklaman\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 \u201cTAM, DERHAL ve G\u00dcVENL\u0130 \u015eEK\u0130LDE A\u00c7MAYI\u201d kabul etmesi \u015fart\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump bu s\u00fcreci \u201ciki tarafl\u0131 ATE\u015eKES\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131 ve ABD ordusunun hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019dan 10 maddelik bir teklif al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7mi\u015f anla\u015fmazl\u0131klarda bir\u00e7ok konuda uzla\u015f\u0131 sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, iki haftal\u0131k s\u00fcrenin de anla\u015fmay\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artt\u0131 ve ABD hisseleri y\u00fckseldi. S&P 500 %1,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde, Nasdaq 100 ise %1,70\u2019in \u00fczerinde prim yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n %1,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 4.770 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) %7,50\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 108 dolardan 101 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda %0,47 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,51\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimali arz endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131yor. Bu bo\u011faz, kritik bir \u201cdar bo\u011faz\u201d (ticaretin ge\u00e7mek zorunda oldu\u011fu stratejik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131). 2024 verilerine g\u00f6re g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil, yani k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si buradan ge\u00e7ti. Ate\u015fkesin sadece iki haftal\u0131k ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski var. Bu y\u00fczden \u201cy\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyonlara bakmak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131.<\/p>\n
S&P 500\u2019deki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f, muhtemelen VIX\u2019i (Volatilite Endeksi; piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er ve \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; bu da koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 daha ucuz hale getirebilir. 2019\u2019daki ticaret gerilimlerinde, tek bir mesajla olumlu havan\u0131n h\u0131zla tersine d\u00f6nebildi\u011fini ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 15\u2019in alt\u0131ndan 20\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fcne f\u0131rlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. \u015eimdi VIX \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak veya SPY ETF (S&P 500\u2019\u00fc takip eden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) \u00fczerinde \u201cput\u201d (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, anla\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcre dolmadan bozulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n hisselerle birlikte y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bunun ana nedeni dolar\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve DXY\u2019nin 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na inmesi. Tarihsel olarak zay\u0131f dolar, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olur; bu ili\u015fkiyi 2021-2022\u2019deki y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6neminde s\u0131k\u00e7a izledik. Ate\u015fkesin bozuldu\u011funa dair herhangi bir i\u015faret, g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftan\u0131n ana konusu, sosyal medyada duyurulan bu ate\u015fkesin ge\u00e7ici olmas\u0131. Piyasa bar\u0131\u015f kesinle\u015fmi\u015f gibi tepki veriyor; ancak son tarih yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a sonu\u00e7 \u201cya olacak ya olmayacak\u201d \u015feklinde iki ihtimalli. Bu nedenle, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine beklenen oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: \u00f6rne\u011fin petrol ETF\u2019leri gibi en \u00e7ok etkilenen varl\u0131klarda \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 fiyatlardan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) kullanmak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son dakika: Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iki haftal\u0131\u011f\u0131na durdurdu; \u015fart H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn derhal a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131. Man\u015fetle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fckseldi: ABD hisseleri artt\u0131, WTI sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, DXY geriledi; oynakl\u0131k opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44163","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44163"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44163\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44163"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44163"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44163"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}