TD Securities\u2019in K\u00fcresel Strateji Ekibi, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Resm\u00ee Nakit Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OCR: Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli politika faizi) piyasa beklentilerine paralel \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ekip, ekonominin kapasitesinin alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 (\u00fcretim ve talebin potansiyelin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131) bir d\u00f6nemde RBNZ\u2019nin arz \u015foklar\u0131na (enerji, g\u0131da, tedarik zinciri gibi maliyet kaynakl\u0131 ani fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cacele etmeyen\u201d bir duru\u015f sergileyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re piyasalar 2026 i\u00e7in 75 baz puan\u0131n (0,75 y\u00fczde puan\u0131) \u00fczerinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ekip, bu fiyatlamay\u0131 RBNZ\u2019nin verece\u011fi mesajlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Ekip, RBNZ toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 (Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n toplant\u0131da hangi gerek\u00e7elerle karar ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatan metin) yak\u0131ndan izleyerek, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 arayacak.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n RBNZ\u2019nin niyetini yanl\u0131\u015f okudu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mevcut fiyatlamada 2026 i\u00e7in 75 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f beklentisi var; bu beklenti y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. RBNZ\u2019nin OCR\u2019yi sabit tutmas\u0131 ve \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131 olunmas\u0131\u201d gerekti\u011fini vurgulamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son verilerle destekleniyor. Enflasyon 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha inat\u00e7\u0131 seviyelerden (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyon) kademeli olarak gerilerken, 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek verisi T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (T\u00dcFE: hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin fiyat sepeti) %3,1 g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) yaln\u0131zca %0,2 artt\u0131; bu da ekonominin potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu do\u011fruluyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, piyasan\u0131n agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Bu, gecelik endeks swap\u0131 (OIS: gecelik faiz \u00fczerinden sabit-de\u011fi\u015fken faiz takas\u0131) ya da opsiyonlar (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullanarak OCR patikas\u0131n\u0131n (ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz rotas\u0131) piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131na oynanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. \u0130\u015flemin temeli, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla mevcut piyasa varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 frenlemesi beklentisi.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d duru\u015fun (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na mesafeli, daha destekleyici para politikas\u0131) Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131 (NZD) da bask\u0131lamas\u0131 beklenebilir. 2025\u2019te RBNZ\u2019nin ara verdi\u011fi sinyalini verdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemde benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, NZD\/USD (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131\/ABD dolar\u0131 paritesi) sonraki haftalarda belirgin zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle \u201cKiwi\u201d dolar\u0131ndaki (NZD\u2019nin piyasa takma ad\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek opsiyon kurgular\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Ana risk, yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda beklenenden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) bir ton g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi. Banka\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7eride kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon (\u00fclke i\u00e7i \u00fccret ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131) endi\u015fesinin zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7meye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler aranacak. B\u00f6yle bir de\u011fi\u015fim, daha erken faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBNZ\u2019den s\u00fcrpriz beklemeyin! TD Securities, OCR\u2019nin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d mesaj verilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasadaki 2026\u2019da 75 bp+ art\u0131\u015f fiyatlamas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131; g\u00fcvercin ton NZD\u2019yi bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44162\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}