TD Securities\u2019nin K\u00fcresel Strateji Ekibi, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) **Resmi Nakit Faizi\u2019ni** (Official Cash Rate\/OCR: Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bankalara uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel k\u0131sa vadeli politika faizi) piyasa beklentisine paralel \u015fekilde **de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini** \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ekibe g\u00f6re RBNZ\u2019nin mesaj\u0131, ekonomi kapasitesinin alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken **arz \u015foklar\u0131na** (\u00f6r. enerji, g\u0131da, lojistik kaynakl\u0131 ani maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) tepki verirken **sab\u0131rl\u0131** olunmas\u0131 \u00fczerine kurulacak.<\/p>\n
Ekip, piyasalar\u0131n 2026 i\u00e7in **75 baz puan\u0131n (bp)** (1 baz puan = %0,01) \u00fczerinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bu fiyatlamay\u0131 **abart\u0131l\u0131** buluyor ve daha erken bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) sinyali olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in toplant\u0131 **tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131** (Minutes: Merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme metni) inceleyecek.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin politika faizinde de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmesi beklenmiyor. Banka, ekonominin tam g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir duru\u015f sergileyebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l bitmeden birden fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin temkinli olmas\u0131, zay\u0131f ekonomik verilerle uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025 sonu itibar\u0131yla **GSYH** (GDP: Bir ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi **%-0,1** ile hafif eksiye d\u00f6nerken, i\u015fsizlik **%4,8**\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. **Enflasyon** ilk \u00e7eyrekte **%3,1** ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etse de, RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fimdilik enflondaki son k\u0131sm\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek yerine b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6ncelemesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (derivative: de\u011feri faiz, kur gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, piyasaya g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ihtimaline g\u00f6re konum almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. 2025 boyunca da benzer \u015fekilde piyasa, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alanlar avantaj sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, RBNZ\u2019nin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131ndan yararlanan i\u015flemler\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin **faiz swap\u0131nda sabit faiz almak** (interest rate swap: iki taraf\u0131n sabit ve de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme; \u201csabit almak\u201d, faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi\/sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine uygun pozisyondur)\u2014\u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131ndaki ifadeler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Bankan\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 sabr\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ya da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden herhangi bir ifade, bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlardan \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in sinyal olabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasay\u0131 en \u00e7ok hareket ettirecek unsur bu ileti\u015fim olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz arayanlar bo\u015funa beklemesin: TD Securities, RBNZ\u2019nin OCR\u2019yi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasalar\u0131n 2026 i\u00e7in 75 bp+ art\u0131\u015f fiyatlamas\u0131 abart\u0131l\u0131. Tutanaklar, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44160"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44160\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}