USD\/JPY sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 160,00 seviyesinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu hareketin ard\u0131ndan kur yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,60\u2019a geriledi ve g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay tamamlad\u0131. 160,00 b\u00f6lgesi daha \u00f6nce Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (kur m\u00fcdahalesinden sorumlu kurum) do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesini tetiklemi\u015fti; bu da piyasada yeniden \u201cm\u00fcdahale gelir mi?\u201d beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,8 geriledi. Bu, ekonomistlerin bekledi\u011fi %0,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften daha zay\u0131f; \u00f6nceki veri %1,0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n nakit kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 (maa\u015f ve ek \u00f6demeler) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 artt\u0131; beklentiyle uyumlu olsa da ocaktaki %3,0 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00d6nc\u00fc Ekonomik Endeks (ekonominin gelecekteki seyrine dair sinyal veren g\u00f6sterge) 112,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Bank of Japan\u2019\u0131n (BoJ – Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; 28 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde beklenti y\u00fcksek. Japonya \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE – \u00fcretici maliyetlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6steren enflasyon verisi) per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de odak \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcnde. Ba\u015fkan Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesi kabul etmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in saat 20.00 ET\u2019ye (ABD Do\u011fu Saati) kadar s\u00fcre verdi; Pakistan ba\u015fbakan\u0131 ise iki haftal\u0131k uzatma talep etti. \u0130ran ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes \u00f6nerilerini reddetti. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019daki Harg Adas\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; haberlere g\u00f6re petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zarar g\u00f6rmedi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) son toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait tutanaklar (FOMC Minutes – karar s\u00fcrecinin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren metin) \u00e7ar\u015famba ak\u015fam\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Ayr\u0131ca Fed yetkilileri Daly ve Waller konu\u015facak. Fed martta faizi %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. 15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte USD\/JPY 159,57 seviyesindeydi; destekler 159,50, 159,30 ve 159,00. Diren\u00e7, 200 periyotluk EMA (\u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama – son verilere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) civar\u0131nda 159,70; ard\u0131ndan 159,90 ve 160,20.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de 160,00 seviyesine ili\u015fkin hassasiyet \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Piyasa sert bir harekete haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bir yanda Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 kur m\u00fcdahalesi, di\u011fer yanda \u0130ran takvimi nedeniyle dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebiyle al\u0131m g\u00f6rmesi belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortamda y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak riskli; oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerle ilgilenen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) stratejisi, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Bu opsiyonlar\u0131n primi (opsiyonun maliyeti) muhtemelen y\u00fcksek olur; 1 ayl\u0131k USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) son d\u00f6nemdeki %9,5 seviyesinden %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Yine de olas\u0131 askeri t\u0131rmanma ya da s\u00fcrpriz kur m\u00fcdahalesinin yaratabilece\u011fi sert hareket d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde maliyet makul g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019nin sonundaki m\u00fcdahalelerde Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tek seansta 5 yenden fazla hareket yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Benzer bir ad\u0131m bug\u00fcn gelse, parite \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde 155,00 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru \u00e7ekilebilir. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, 159,50 \u00fczerindeki korunmas\u0131z (hedgesiz) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7ok riskli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n %1,8 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, BoJ\u2019un i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep, yeni ve sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131lan bir tabloyu desteklemiyor. Piyasa bu ay %70 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlasa da, bu ad\u0131m yenin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in yeterli olmayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk \u015fu an dolar\u0131n en \u00f6nemli belirleyicisi. WTI (West Texas Intermediate – ABD referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Trump\u2019\u0131n son tarihi, tansiyon artarsa dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7abilecek \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici. Benzer bir tablo 2025\u2019in sonunda G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki deniz tatbikatlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, dolar endeksi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %2 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de zaten uzun pozisyonda olanlar i\u00e7in, bu pozisyonu \u201czarar y\u00f6n\u00fcnde koruma\u201d sa\u011flayan opsiyonlarla dengelemek \u00f6nemlidir. \u00d6rne\u011fin kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 158,00 civar\u0131nda olan \u201cout-of-the-money put\u201d (mevcut fiyattan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu; sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) ani bir m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli koruma sa\u011flayabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve Japonya \u00dcFE verisi, fiyat hareketlerini daha da b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, g\u00f6zler \u201cm\u00fcdahale gelir mi?\u201d sorusunda: BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %70 fiyatlan\u0131rken zay\u0131f t\u00fcketim ve \u0130ran gerilimi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. FOMC tutanaklar\u0131, \u00dcFE ve opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44155\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}