USD\/JPY k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez bu e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015ft\u0131; ard\u0131ndan 159,60 civar\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi ve g\u00fcn\u00fc yataya yak\u0131n kapatt\u0131. 160,00 b\u00f6lgesi, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (kurda dalgalanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in) ge\u00e7mi\u015fte att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor; bu da olas\u0131 yeni hamlelere dair beklentileri yeniden art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da hane halk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,8 geriledi. Piyasa beklentisi %0,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi; \u00f6nceki veri %1,0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyordu. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc nakit kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 artt\u0131; beklentiyle uyumlu olsa da %3,0\u2019dan yava\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6nc\u00fc Ekonomik Endeks (ekonominin gidi\u015fat\u0131na dair erken sinyal veren g\u00f6sterge) 112,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) bu ay i\u00e7inde faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00dcFE (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fcretim a\u015famas\u0131ndaki maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) verisi ile 28 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Japon yetkililer d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda artan spek\u00fclatif i\u015flemlere (k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n bahsi ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) at\u0131fta bulunurken, Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran liderli\u011fi ve Ba\u015fkan Trump ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme plan\u0131 g\u00fcndemdeydi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesi kabul etmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi TS\u0130\u2019ye g\u00f6re yakla\u015fan son tarih g\u00fcndemde; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler t\u0131kan\u0131rken petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. ABD gece saatlerinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kharg Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki hedefleri vurdu. Fed martta faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc FOMC Tutanaklar\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131na dair ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) ve yetkililerin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 izlenecek.<\/p>\n
160,00 seviyesindeki hassasiyet ve yakla\u015fan jeopolitik takvim nedeniyle, dalgalanma al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Burada \u201cvolatilite\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert oynama e\u011filimi) sat\u0131n almak, fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne oynama anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu nedenle, \u201cstraddle\u201d ve \u201cstrangle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir: Bunlar ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131narak, fiyat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gitmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen y\u00f6ntemlerdir.<\/p>\n
2025 perspektifinden geriye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2022\u2019de ve Nisan 2024\u2019te dolar\u0131n bu t\u00fcr kritik psikolojik seviyeleri a\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalelerini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu m\u00fcdahaleler, saatler i\u00e7inde 3\u20135 yenlik sert geri \u00e7ekilmelere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; benzer bir hamle riski y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma veya bu hareketten faydalanma amac\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131na ili\u015fkin takvim, \u00f6zellikle enerji piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in belirgin bir \u201colay riski\u201d (tek bir haberle fiyatlar\u0131n sert hareket etme riski) yarat\u0131yor. Bo\u011faz, k\u00fcresel g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019inin, yani 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde hacmin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131. Anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ratabilece\u011finden, portf\u00f6y\u00fc dengelemek i\u00e7in Brent veya WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyattan uzakta, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi gerektiren) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 bir korunma arac\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019daki zay\u0131f hane halk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 verisi ile piyasan\u0131n bu ay BoJ\u2019dan %70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemesi aras\u0131nda belirgin bir uyumsuzluk var. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, 28 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na uzanan vadelerde opsiyonlar\u0131n ima etti\u011fi volatilitenin (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi oynakl\u0131k beklentisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yenin son d\u00f6nemdeki zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirebilecek politika s\u00fcrprizi ihtimali burada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 159,30\u2019a do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret etse de, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ana g\u00fcndem maddeleri yan\u0131nda bu hareketler ikincil kal\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli pozisyonlar daha \u00e7ok taktiksel olmal\u0131; Tokyo veya Washington\u2019dan gelecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar g\u00fcn i\u00e7i grafik sinyallerini kolayca g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana odak, m\u00fcdahale riski ve jeopolitik gerilim kaynakl\u0131 risklerin y\u00f6netimi olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, m\u00fcdahale alarm\u0131 yeniden \u00e7ald\u0131! Japon verileri zay\u0131f, BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %70 fiyatlan\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc \u015fi\u015firiyor; opsiyonla volatilite\/korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44153\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}