USD\/CHF, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artmas\u0131yla g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki y\u00fckseli\u015finin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Reuters\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkili, Tahran\u2019\u0131n Pakistan\u2019\u0131n iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes \u00f6nerisini olumlu de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; bu a\u00e7\u0131klama ABD hisse senetlerini destekledi.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda parite %0,08 art\u0131\u015fla 0,7978\u2019deydi ve a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f seviyesine do\u011fru geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyordu. Fiyat 0,8000\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorland\u0131; bu da 0,7950\u2019ye do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Grafik yap\u0131s\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek tepeler ve daha y\u00fcksek dipler g\u00f6steriyor; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Fiyat\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat) bulundu\u011fu 0,7941\u2019in alt\u0131na inmesi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu durumda s\u0131radaki seviyeler 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019daki 0,7918 ve 1 Nisan dip seviyesi olan 0,7904 olur.<\/p>\n
Parite 0,8000\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, odak 31 Mart\u2019taki ara tepe olan 0,8042\u2019ye ve ard\u0131ndan 0,8100\u2019e kayar. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: 0-100 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen, al\u0131m-sat\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) pozitif b\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Artan faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark), ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha cazip hale getiriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda pariteyi as\u0131l destekleyen unsurun bu temel r\u00fczg\u00e2r olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politikas\u0131ndaki net y\u00f6n, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, USD\/CHF al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, riskin \u00f6nceden belirli olmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Haziran 2026 vadeli 0,8900 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) call opsiyonlar\u0131 trendden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. CME Group verilerine g\u00f6re z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,2 seviyesinde; bu da piyasada a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanma beklentisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve opsiyon primlerinin (premium: opsiyonun maliyeti) g\u00f6rece makul kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in USD\/CHF vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde (futures: ileri tarihli, standartla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kontrat\u0131) uzun pozisyon (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) da de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, paritenin 0,9000 psikolojik seviyesini test edece\u011fi beklentisine daha do\u011frudan ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (leverage: daha az teminatla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon) bir maruziyet sa\u011flar. 0,8750\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutunamamas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli ivmede olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim i\u00e7in takip edilmesi gereken kritik bir seviye olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF\u2019te kritik viraj: Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131nca kazan\u00e7lar t\u00f6rp\u00fclendi; 0,8000 a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131, 0,7950\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi. Trend h\u00e2l\u00e2 yukar\u0131; 0,7941 alt\u0131 risk. 0,8042-0,8100 hedefte; faiz fark\u0131 dolar lehine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44147\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}