{"id":44137,"date":"2026-04-08T00:37:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T00:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-dolarinin-son-tarih-oncesi-zayiflamasiyla-aud-usd-guclenerek-100-gunluk-smadan-toparlanmanin-ardindan-06950-seviyesini-zorluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T00:37:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T00:37:13","slug":"abd-dolarinin-son-tarih-oncesi-zayiflamasiyla-aud-usd-guclenerek-100-gunluk-smadan-toparlanmanin-ardindan-06950-seviyesini-zorluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-dolarinin-son-tarih-oncesi-zayiflamasiyla-aud-usd-guclenerek-100-gunluk-smadan-toparlanmanin-ardindan-06950-seviyesini-zorluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son tarih \u00f6ncesi zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla AUD\/USD g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019dan toparlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,6950 seviyesini zorluyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Avustralya Dolar\u0131, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a anla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131 veya H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Do\u011fu Saati\u2019yle (ET) 20.00\u2019de (\u00c7ar\u015famba 00.00 GMT) dolacak s\u00fcre \u00f6ncesinde ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flay\u0131nca Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. AUD\/USD 0,6955 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,54 artt\u0131. <\/p>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalamay\u0131nca 99,80 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019na ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in Yuan\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme destek verdi. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), g\u00fcnl\u00fck referans kuru 6,8854\u2019te belirledi; bu seviye yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00fczeyi. <\/p>\n

\u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kan Teknik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n

G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte AUD\/USD, 0,6842\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) \u00fczerinde tutunarak tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi yapt\u0131. Parite 0,6950 seviyesini test ediyor; buras\u0131 daha \u00f6nce \u201cdestek\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc durdurabilen seviye) iken \u015fimdi \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. <\/p>\n

0,6950\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 0,7000 seviyesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; buras\u0131 0,7024\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n. Parite 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na kapan\u0131\u015f yaparsa s\u0131radaki odak 0,6700 b\u00f6lgesi; daha \u00f6nce \u201cyukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma b\u00f6lgesi\u201d (fiyat\u0131n bir e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015f\u0131p h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n

RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: momentum\/g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6stergesi) yeniden 50\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. MACD (hareketli ortalamalar fark\u0131: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) sinyal \u00e7izgisinin biraz alt\u0131nda kalsa da s\u0131f\u0131ra do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor; histogram (iki \u00e7izgi aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 s\u00fctunlarla g\u00f6steren k\u0131s\u0131m) daral\u0131yor. <\/p>\n

Opsiyon Stratejileri ve Makro Kataliz\u00f6rler<\/h3>\n

Avustralya dolar\u0131, \u00c7in ekonomisine \u201cg\u00f6sterge\u201d (proxy: dolayl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm arac\u0131) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi nedeniyle de bask\u0131 hissediyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar (vadeli i\u015flem, opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu, 0,6500 alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi) alman\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y sigortas\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 0,6700 \u00fczerindeki \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan uzak, hemen kazand\u0131rmayan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi beklentisi) satmak ise, \u00fcst band\u0131n korunaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla prim geliri elde etme stratejisi olabilir. <\/p>\n

Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) Nisan 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutma karar\u0131 ve hizmet enflasyonunun (\u00f6zellikle hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f) kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa vurgu yapmas\u0131 da fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131na katk\u0131 verdi. Avustralya\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon en son %3,4 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan RBA bekle-g\u00f6r konumunda; bu durum para birimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bu ortamda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn; bu da uzun vadeli opsiyon stratejilerini \u015fimdilik daha az cazip k\u0131labilir. <\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de gelecek tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) verisi \u00f6zellikle izlenmeli. Beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cfaizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve AUD\/USD\u2019yi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundaki 0,6450 destek b\u00f6lgesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. ABD verilerinde beklenmedik zay\u0131fl\u0131k ise k\u0131sa pozisyon kapatmalar\u0131n (short-covering: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n geri al\u0131nmas\u0131) etkisiyle paritede 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz i\u00e7in verdi\u011fi s\u00fcre dolmadan Dolar gerileyince AUD\/USD 0,6955\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. DXY 99,80\u2019e indi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yuan destek verdi. 0,6950 kritik; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,70, alt\u0131 0,67. NFP belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44137\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}