Brown Brothers Harriman, bu hafta yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131larda d\u00f6rt merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunlar Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (NBP), Peru Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BCRP) ve Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOK).<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci toplant\u0131da faizi %5,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131 nedeniyle duru\u015funu \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201dden (ne s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ne gev\u015fetici) \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131\u201dya (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye odakl\u0131) \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
NBP\u2019nin, 4 Mart\u2019taki 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bps; faizin y\u00fczde 0,25\u2019lik k\u0131sm\u0131) indirimin ard\u0131ndan per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi %3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasan\u0131n \u201cswap\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131 (faiz takas\u0131; gelecekteki faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan i\u015flem) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda toplam 60 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Peru\u2019nun BCRP\u2019sinin per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste yedinci toplant\u0131da faizi %4,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Martta hem man\u015fet hem \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, \u00e7ekirdek ise oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015flanm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) bankan\u0131n %1-3 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
BOK\u2019un cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste yedinci toplant\u0131da faizi %2,50\u2019de tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bankan\u0131n alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k faiz projeksiyonu, \u201csabit kalacak\u201d patikas\u0131 yerine art\u0131\u015flara i\u015faret edecek \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu hafta repo faizini (bankalara k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 verme faizi) %6,0\u2019da tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak riskler tek tarafl\u0131 de\u011fil. Mart T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonun %4,9\u2019a yeniden h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdikten sonra, ba\u015fkandan daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) bir ton gelebilir. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bozulunca kurulun duru\u015fu \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131\u201dya \u00e7ekmeyi tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme benziyor.<\/p>\n
Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %4,50\u2019de tutmas\u0131 muhtemel; ancak odak, Ba\u015fkan Glapinski\u2019nin \u201cileri y\u00f6nlendirmesinde\u201d (gelecekteki faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme) olacak. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken, swap piyasas\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l 50 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu durum, swap e\u011frisinin (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki faiz beklentisi) 2025 Mart\u2019\u0131nda da benzer \u015fekilde belirgin art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Peru Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne (faiz indirim s\u00fcreci) ara vererek \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci toplant\u0131da faizi %5,00\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon riskleri yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; Mart verisi %3,2 ile bankan\u0131n %1-3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine geldi. 2025\u2019te de benzer bir enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, sonu\u00e7ta BCRP yedi toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste faizi sabit tutmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %3,50\u2019de sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor; banka bu seviyeyi iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir koruyor. Piyasa i\u00e7in temel risk, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck projeksiyonlarda \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir s\u00fcrpriz. \u00d6zellikle Kore wonu son d\u00f6nemde dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 1400 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu da 2025\u2019te izlenen, kurulun \u201csabit\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yerine gelecekte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali vermeyi tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa benziyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: BBH, RBI, NBP, BCRP ve BOK\u2019un bu hafta faizleri sabit b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak ton \u015fahinle\u015febilir; ileri y\u00f6nlendirme ve enflasyon riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44134"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44134\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}