New York Fed\u2019in mart ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Beklentileri Anketi, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisini %3,4\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Bu oran \u015fubatta %3,0 seviyesindeydi; ayl\u0131k bazda 0,4 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fi oldu ve anketin uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131 olan %3,34\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak benzin ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015flere ba\u011flad\u0131. Ankette, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n da maliyet beklentilerini etkileyen bir unsur oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
Daha uzun vadeli beklentiler, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcme g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket etti. \u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,1\u2019e hafif y\u00fckselirken, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,0\u2019da kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tuttu. \u201cDot plot\u201d (Fed yetkililerinin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz tahminlerini nokta noktalarla g\u00f6steren grafik) 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan k\u0131sm\u0131nda bir faiz indirimi sinyali verdi. CME FedWatch (faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinden piyasadaki faiz beklentisini olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa \u00e7eviren g\u00f6sterge) hazirana kadar faizin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalma ihtimalini %89,2 olarak g\u00f6sterirken, y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda da indirim olmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC \u2013 Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Bu tutanaklar, yetkililerin enflasyon risklerine nas\u0131l bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon, mal ve hizmetlerden olu\u015fan bir \u201csepet\u201dte (t\u00fcketimin temsil\u00ee seti) genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r; ayl\u0131k (MoM \u2013 bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k (YoY \u2013 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon, g\u0131da ve enerjiyi (yak\u0131t) hari\u00e7 tutar; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bunlar fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilen (oynak) kalemlerdir. Merkez bankalar\u0131 genelde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu daha yak\u0131ndan izler ve hedef s\u0131kl\u0131kla %2 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE (CPI \u2013 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi), bu sepetin fiyat\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi izler; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE, oynak kalemleri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Enflasyon y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek kalma ihtimali artar; y\u00fcksek faiz, para birimini destekleyebilir (daha y\u00fcksek getiri arayan para giri\u015fini \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in).<\/p>\n
Enflasyon alt\u0131n\u0131 da faiz \u00fczerinden etkiler. Faiz y\u00fckselince alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyeti\u201d artar (faiz getiren ara\u00e7lardan vazge\u00e7me maliyeti); faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce alt\u0131na talep destek bulabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n: New York Fed anketinde 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %3,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en sert art\u0131\u015f\u0131. Benzin-g\u0131da etkili, Orta Do\u011fu riski. Fed sabit, indirim ihtimali zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44125\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}