Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc EUR\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi. Piyasa, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a anla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131 ya da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in koydu\u011fu son tarihe odakland\u0131. EUR\/USD 1,1571 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren sepet endeks) 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunamayarak 99,90 civar\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, Do\u011fu Saati\u2019ne g\u00f6re 20.00\u2019ye (\u00c7ar\u015famba 00.00 GMT) kadar anla\u015fma olmazsa ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji ve sivil altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yok edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tehran Times gazetesi, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile t\u00fcm diplomatik ve dolayl\u0131 ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 zaten y\u00fcksek seyrederken, gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 enerji maliyetlerini ve enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekip b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatabilir. Euro B\u00f6lgesi net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 (t\u00fcketti\u011finden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan al\u0131yor) oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 (\u00fcretti\u011finden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya sat\u0131yor) olan ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verileri, HICP\u2019nin (Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: Avrupa\u2019da \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in standart enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) martta ayl\u0131k %1,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, \u015fubatta %0,6 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %1,9\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en temel g\u00f6sterge) ayl\u0131k %0,9 (\u00f6nceki %0,3) gelmesi, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun ise %2,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, y\u0131l sonuna kadar ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) en fazla iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams, politikan\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r i\u00e7in uygun\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve sava\u015f\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) \u201cbir-iki onda\u201d ekleyebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan alma-satma anla\u015fmas\u0131) bu ay varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum enflasyonu do\u011frudan etkiliyor. ABD\u2019de mart 2026 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n mart i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 tahmini (\u00f6nc\u00fc veri) ise enflasyonu %2,6 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Buradaki ana nokta, para politikas\u0131na (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) etkide ayr\u0131\u015fma. ABD b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji \u00fcreticisi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha kolay sindirebilir; Fed enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye odaklanabilir. Euro B\u00f6lgesi ise net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in hem b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 hem de fiyatlar\u0131n artmas\u0131 riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz, faiz, emtia gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu tablo \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD\u2019de zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 (put opsiyonu: belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinde kullan\u0131l\u0131r) al\u0131narak 1,0500 destek seviyesine olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeden yararlan\u0131labilir. Jeopolitik riskin artmas\u0131, ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da y\u00fckseltir (ima edilen oynakl\u0131k: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma); bu da \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: hen\u00fcz k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir (call spread: belli iki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 aras\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131ndan kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli yap\u0131).<\/p>\n
Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, faiz piyasalar\u0131nda da f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini ertelemesi beklenirken, ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne (faiz art\u0131rma s\u00fcreci) beklenenden erken ara vermesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu da ABD ile Avrupa devlet tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (faiz fark\u0131: iki \u00fclkenin tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki makas) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran resti piyasay\u0131 kilitledi: Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, EUR\/USD 1,1571\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ancak petrol \u015foku Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ni daha sert vurabilir; politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44123\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}