Euro, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Bunun nedeni, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir anla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131 ya da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in verilen ABD s\u00fcresi yakla\u015f\u0131rken Dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yd\u0131. EUR\/USD paritesi 1,1571 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, ABD Dolar Endeksi 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalamayarak 99,90 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, Do\u011fu Saati ile 20:00 (\u00c7ar\u015famba 00:00 GMT) i\u00e7in s\u00fcre verdi ve anla\u015fma sa\u011flanmazsa \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji ve sivil altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tehran Times gazetesi, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile t\u00fcm diplomatik ve dolayl\u0131 ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 enflasyonu art\u0131r\u0131p b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatabilir. Bunun nedeni, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 (enerjiyi d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan alan) olmas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin ise net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 (enerji satan) konumunda bulunmas\u0131d\u0131r. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verileri, uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksinin (HICP: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (\u015eubat: %0,6), y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini (\u00f6nceki: %1,9) g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksinin (CPI: t\u00fcketici enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) ayl\u0131k %0,9 (\u015eubat: %0,3), y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 (\u015eubat: %2,4) gelmesi bekleniyor. Piyasalar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) y\u0131l sonuna kadar iki faize kadar art\u0131\u015f yapabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor (fiyatlamak: piyasalar\u0131n beklentiyi i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tmas\u0131).<\/p>\n
New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams, politikan\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d i\u00e7in uygun konumda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve sava\u015f\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) \u201cbir-iki onda\u201d ekleyebilece\u011fini belirtti. ECB yetkilisi Pierre Wunsch ise \u0130ran krizinin s\u00fcrmesi halinde birden fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131na ait son enflasyon verileri, bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor: ABD CPI %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyrederken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP %2,4\u2019e geriledi. Bu durum, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen beklentilerin tersine d\u00f6nmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u015eimdi t\u00fcrev piyasalar (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz, faiz gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ECB\u2019nin Fed\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirebilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, risk d\u00f6nemlerinde Dolar\u0131n otomatik olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Kritik unsur, bu t\u00fcr olaylar\u0131n enflasyonu nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi ve bunun da merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz patikas\u0131: gelecekte beklenen faiz yolu) nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fidir. EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun oynakl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131 (oynakl\u0131k\/volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi; uzun volatilite: sert hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n beklenmedik bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol varil fiyat\u0131 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki tansiyonun artmas\u0131 Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu (\u015fahin: enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz isteyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, enerji \u015foklar\u0131 d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ana belirleyici haline h\u0131zla gelebilir. Buradaki \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m, enflasyonun yeniden Dolar\u0131n geleneksel \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (g\u00fcvenli liman: kriz d\u00f6neminde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011finin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fidir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev odakl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na dikkat etmeli. EUR\/USD\u2019nin yatay ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanan opsiyonlar (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme), \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money put: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu; satmak: prim geliri elde etmek) daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Paritede ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; bu da bir sonraki enflasyon verisi ya da jeopolitik haberin sert hareket riskinin piyasada yeterince fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: Dolar gev\u015ferken Euro y\u00fckseliyor! \u0130ran\u2019a ABD \u00fcltimatomu yakla\u015f\u0131rken EUR\/USD 1,1570\u2019te. Petrol 90$ \u00fcst\u00fc enflasyon riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; Fed bekle-g\u00f6r, ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyaliyle ayr\u0131\u015fma derinle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44122\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}