Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fckselen ham petrol ve benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Mart T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisi \u00fczerinden ABD enflasyonunu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) ge\u00e7en trafi\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi; bu durum k\u0131sa vadede ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet (genel) ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u015eubat\u2019taki %0,3\u2019ten Mart\u2019ta %1,0\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan Haziran 2022\u2019den bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n
ISM Hizmetler \u201c\u00d6denen Fiyatlar\u201d endeksi (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde firmalar\u0131n maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) \u015eubat\u2019ta 63,0 seviyesinden Mart\u2019ta 70,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu Ekim 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye. Ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ise 2012\u2019den beri en sert y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
AAA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD otomobil kul\u00fcb\u00fc; \u00fclke genelinde benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 derleyen kurum) g\u00fcnl\u00fck verilerine g\u00f6re galon ba\u015f\u0131na benzin fiyat\u0131 Mart\u2019ta %36,2 artt\u0131 ve Nisan\u2019da \u015fimdiye kadar her g\u00fcn y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni hen\u00fcz belirgin bir tepki vermedi. \u00d6te yandan ISM Hizmetler istihdam endeksi (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde i\u015fe al\u0131m e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren alt kalem), daha zay\u0131f i\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret edebilecek bir sinyal olarak g\u00fcndeme geldi.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131 FOMC toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurulunun toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterebilir. Mart\u2019ta yay\u0131mlanan 2026 \u201cdot\u201d medyan\u0131 (Fed yetkililerinin faiz beklentilerini nokta grafikte g\u00f6stermesi) %3,375 oldu; bu, bu y\u0131l bir kez faiz indirimi beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu varsay\u0131m zay\u0131f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve son tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde olu\u015fturulan i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) verilerine ba\u011flan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden \u00f6nemli bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken benzine de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Bu haftaki Mart T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor; baz\u0131 ekonomistler ayl\u0131k %0,4 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu tablo piyasa i\u00e7in ciddi belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnk\u00fc ISM Hizmetler raporu da bir uyar\u0131 sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; \u201c\u00d6denen Fiyatlar\u201d endeksi 65,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi alanlardan biri de bu. Endeksin istihdam bile\u015feninde de yumu\u015fama g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu, son g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilere ra\u011fmen ileride daha zay\u0131f bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftaki NFP istihdam raporunun 250 binin \u00fczerinde yeni istihdam g\u00f6stermesiyle, Fed\u2019in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filiminde) bir duru\u015f sergilemesi olas\u0131. Son toplant\u0131n\u0131n tutanaklar\u0131, faiz indirimlerinin ertelenebilece\u011fine dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (vadeli i\u015flemlerden hareketle Fed faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re piyasa yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131; beklentiler y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenen enflasyon ve faiz belirsizli\u011fi, piyasalarda daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n daha sert dalgalanmas\u0131) beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Opsiyon stratejileri (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle kurulan i\u015flemler) i\u00e7inde, fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) gibi y\u00f6ntemler SPX (S&P 500 endeksi) \u00fczerinde daha cazip hale gelebilir. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 16 seviyesinde; bu haftaki enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde risk, faizlerin beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019leri (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar) \u0645\u062b\u0644 TLT \u00fczerinde \u201cput\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma arac\u0131) almay\u0131 ya da SOFR (ABD gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizi; referans faiz) opsiyonlar\u0131yla Fed\u2019in indirimleri ertelemesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Hik\u00e2ye, \u201cka\u00e7 indirim olacak\u201d sorusundan \u201cbu y\u0131l indirim olacak m\u0131\u201d sorusuna kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol ve benzin zamm\u0131 ABD\u2019de Mart T\u00dcFE\u2019yi s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir: man\u015fet %1,0 s\u00fcrprizi masada. ISM \u201c\u00d6denen Fiyatlar\u201d rekor, Fed tutanaklar\u0131 \u015fahinle\u015febilir; faiz indirimi beklentisi y\u0131l sonuna \u00f6teleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44120"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44120\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}