TD Securities\u2019in emtia ekibi, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki s\u00fcren aksakl\u0131k ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fin durmas\u0131n\u0131n petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tuttu\u011funu belirtiyor. Ak\u0131\u015flar donmu\u015f halde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ham petrol, petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ve LNG\u2019de (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) arz-talep dengesinin daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ekibe g\u00f6re sava\u015f\u0131n haftalarca s\u00fcrmesi halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 50 dolar veya daha fazla y\u00fckselebilir. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar yak\u0131nda bitse bile, arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (talebin arz\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131) ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar nedeniyle enerji fiyatlar\u0131 2027\u2019ye kadar y\u00fcksek kalabilir.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, ham petrolde 90\u2013100 dolar band\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u00c7in ve Japonya gibi \u00fclkelerin stok yenileme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n (t\u00fckenen depolar\u0131 yeniden doldurma) arz \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki uzayan aksakl\u0131k nedeniyle petrol\u00fcn yeni bir sert y\u00fckseli\u015fe haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 piyasay\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan) stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 50 dolar veya daha fazla olas\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir vadeye kadar, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) son verileriyle de destekleniyor: Ge\u00e7en hafta stoklarda beklenenden y\u00fcksek 4,2 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi: depolardan t\u00fcketim nedeniyle azalma) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, fiziki piyasa (ger\u00e7ek teslimatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) belirgin bir arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Bu ko\u015fullar, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015fin hen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa belirsizli\u011fi, CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (OVX: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen oynakl\u0131k\/belirsizlik g\u00f6stergesi) 2025 sonlar\u0131nda ba\u015flayan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k, opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getirir. Bu nedenle al\u0131m opsiyonu bor\u00e7 spreadi (call debit spread: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) kullanmak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc getiriyi hedeflerken \u00f6denen primi (opsiyon bedeli) ve zaman de\u011ferinin erimesini (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlayan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yol olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma bitse bile fiyatlar\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90\u2013100 dolar civar\u0131nda yeni bir taban olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u00d6zellikle \u00c7in ve Japonya\u2019da stratejik rezervlerin (devletin acil durum i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu petrol\/do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131) azalmas\u0131, \u00fclkeler stoklar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yenilerken kal\u0131c\u0131 talep yaratacak. 85 dolar civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, uzun vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli vadeye kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) satmak; bu y\u00fcksek fiyat taban\u0131na dayanarak prim geliri (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bedel) toplamak i\u00e7in bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
Etki LNG\u2019ye de uzan\u0131yor. Katar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 LNG kargolar\u0131n\u0131n gelmemesi, Avrupa do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 megavat-saat ba\u015f\u0131na 160 euronun \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu, ham petrolde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz t\u00fcrden arz kaynakl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikliyor. Bu nedenle do\u011fal gaz vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde (futures: ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131 bug\u00fcnden fiyatlayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya do\u011fal gaz opsiyonlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar ilgili bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kapal\u0131, Basra aks\u0131yor: TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re petrol ve LNG arz\u0131 kilitlendi. Sava\u015f uzarsa petrol +50$ s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir; bitse de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar 2027\u2019ye kadar 90\u2013100$ taban\u0131n\u0131 koruyabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44117\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}