TD Securities\u2019in emtia (ham madde) ekibi, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde uzun s\u00fcrecek bir aksama ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ni Umman Denizi\u2019ne ba\u011flayan kritik petrol yolu) ge\u00e7i\u015flerin engellenmesinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ekibe g\u00f6re rota kapal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ham petrol, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnler (benzin, motorin gibi) ve LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz: so\u011futularak s\u0131v\u0131 hale getirilen ve tankerle ta\u015f\u0131nan gaz) taraf\u0131nda arz (piyasaya sunulan miktar) \u015fartlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
Ekip, engelin s\u00fcrmesi halinde \u00fcretimin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 ve stoklar\u0131n (depolardaki mevcut petrol\/gaz miktar\u0131) d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyor. Bu etkenlerin, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma beklenenden uzun s\u00fcrerse enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tutabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmezse fiyatlar\u0131n 50 dolar veya daha fazla artabilece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede bitse bile, arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (piyasada ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan miktarla sunulan miktar aras\u0131ndaki fark) ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar nedeniyle fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ekip, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90\u2013100 dolar band\u0131ndaki ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7in ve Japonya gibi \u00fclkelerin stoklar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yeniden olu\u015fturmak isteyebilece\u011fini not ediyor.<\/p>\n
Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki uzayan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn sert y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 2025 sonlar\u0131nda ba\u015flayan ablukalardan bu yana H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015flerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, piyasay\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck milyonlarca varil arzdan mahrum b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcregelen arz \u015foku (beklenmedik arz kesintisi), enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Durum gerilime d\u00f6nmezse 50 dolar veya daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulundu\u011fundan, ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (ileride belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) ve al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu senaryo, 2022\u2019de Rusya kaynakl\u0131 arz kesintilerinin ard\u0131ndan Brent petrol\u00fcn k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine varil ba\u015f\u0131na 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa tepkisine benziyor.<\/p>\n
Arz krizini a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n kritik seviyede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 ve tampon g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rememesi. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) Mart 2026 raporuna g\u00f6re ABD stratejik rezervleri 50 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde; benzer durum OECD (Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma Te\u015fkilat\u0131: geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00fclke grubu) genelinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm sonras\u0131nda Japonya ve \u00c7in gibi \u00fclkelerden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir stok yenileme (yeniden depolama) hamlesi gelmesi muhtemel; bu da y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131n ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klansa bile, y\u00fcksek miktarda \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nermeyiz. \u00dcretim altyap\u0131s\u0131na verilen hasar ve tedarik zincirinin (\u00fcretimden ta\u015f\u0131maya uzanan s\u00fcre\u00e7) yeniden dolmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gereken s\u00fcre, arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ham petrol i\u00e7in 90\u2013100 dolar\/varil aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yeni bir taban (alt s\u0131n\u0131r) olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 belirsizlik oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddeti) y\u00fcksek tutacakt\u0131r; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 riski y\u00f6netmek ve yukar\u0131 potansiyelden yararlanmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir ara\u00e7 yapar. Cboe Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: petrol fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 45\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyrediyor; bu seviyeler ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk \u015fokundan beri kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu ortam, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r; ancak temel risk h\u00e2l\u00e2 ani ve sert bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya<\/a>\u00a0ba\u015flay\u0131n. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de 80% d\u00fc\u015fen ge\u00e7i\u015fler, petrol, \u00fcr\u00fcn ve LNG arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. TD Securities, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma uzarsa 50$+ s\u0131\u00e7rama ve 2027\u2019ye dek 90\u2013100$ taban\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44116\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}