Societe Generale, \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in bu y\u0131l ABD\u2019den daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenen tek G10 (10 b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke) ekonomisi oldu\u011funu bildirdi. Banka ayr\u0131ca piyasalar\u0131n, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) hari\u00e7 t\u00fcm G10 merkez bankalar\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130sve\u00e7 Kronu (SEK), y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana G10\u2019un en zay\u0131f para birimi olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. Bu durum, \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Notta, ate\u015fkes ilan edilmesi halinde SEK\u2019in \u201cal\u0131m i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi\u201d belirtildi. Gerek\u00e7e olarak \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve kronun di\u011fer G10 para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, \u0130sve\u00e7 ekonomisinin ABD\u2019den daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenmesine ra\u011fmen \u0130sve\u00e7 Kronu\u2019nun zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir tablo g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu uyumsuzluk 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devam etti ve piyasada gerilim yaratt\u0131. Temel ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler (\u00fclkenin ger\u00e7ek ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tan veriler) dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda para birimi h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli\u201d (ger\u00e7ek g\u00fcc\u00fcne g\u00f6re ucuza fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler \u0130sve\u00e7 ekonomisinin benzer \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la; ekonomide \u00fcretilen toplam de\u011fer) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %0,8 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi ve ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Avro B\u00f6lgesi ortalamas\u0131 olan %0,3\u2019\u00fc belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) sorun olmaya devam ediyor; mart ay\u0131ndaki son veri CPIF\u2019i (sabit faizli konut kredisi etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu; \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi g\u00f6sterge) %3,1 olarak g\u00f6sterdi. Bu seviye, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n (\u0130sve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131) %2 hedefinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6zellikle Fed\u2019in uzun s\u00fcreli \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmama\/indirim yapmama e\u011filimi) d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu fark \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak bir merkez bankas\u0131 benzerlerine g\u00f6re faiz konusunda daha agresif oldu\u011funda, para birimi g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. Piyasada yaz \u00f6ncesi bir Riksbank faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 kontratlar) i\u015flemleri yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda SEK\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik \u201cpozisyon alma\u201d (beklentiye g\u00f6re i\u015flem a\u00e7ma) fikrini destekliyor. \u00d6zellikle avro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda SEK \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli bir vadede belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131n\u0131r) almak, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalamak i\u00e7in uygun bir strateji olabilir. EUR\/SEK kurunun (1 avronun ka\u00e7 kron oldu\u011fu) 11,60 civar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seviyelerden, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 11,20 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri gelmesi giderek daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz f\u0131rsat: SocGen\u2019e g\u00f6re \u0130sve\u00e7, ABD\u2019den h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenen tek G10; kron y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f\u0131 ama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli. Ate\u015fkesle al\u0131m \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; Riksbank \u015fahinle\u015fip EUR\/SEK\u2019i 11,20\u2019ye \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44114\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}