ING, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Toplant\u0131da yeni tahminler a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenmiyor; y\u00f6nlendirme (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair verdi\u011fi ipu\u00e7lar\u0131) ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar ise piyasalar toplam 65 baz puan (bp; faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 (NZD), bu y\u0131l Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019na (AUD) k\u0131yasla geride kald\u0131. Bunun nedeni, Avustralya\u2019ya g\u00f6re emtia (ham madde) fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n NZD\u2019ye daha zay\u0131f destek vermesi. Rapora g\u00f6re, RBNZ daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish; enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir mesaj vermezse bu zay\u0131f performans s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 yar\u0131n toplan\u0131rken, faizin %2,25\u2019te korunmas\u0131n\u0131 ve tonun belirgin \u015fekilde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (dovish; b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmakta isteksiz, daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Ba\u015fkan Breman daha \u00f6nce de g\u00fcvercin mesajlar verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, s\u00fcrpriz bir \u015fahin duru\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda NZD\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131k riskini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Veriler de merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temkinli duru\u015funu destekliyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde enflasyon %2,8\u2019e gerileyerek RBNZ\u2019nin hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyre\u011fe ait GSYH (GDP; bir \u00fclkede \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmetin parasal de\u011feri) verileri ise ekonominin tamamen durdu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, bankaya faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali vermek yerine \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gerek\u00e7eler sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, NZD\u2019nin yatay kalmas\u0131ndan veya de\u011fer kaybetmesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Nisan sonu ya da May\u0131s vadeli NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu strateji, riski ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsat ise \u201ckiwi\u201dnin (NZD\u2019nin piyasa jargonundaki ad\u0131) Avustralya dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki zay\u0131f performans\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu e\u011filim, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi emtias\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle maden) ihracat\u0131ndan kaynaklanan deste\u011fe dayan\u0131rken, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ekonomisi benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir destekten yoksun. RBNZ\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz gelmedik\u00e7e bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde ton ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam seyretti. Ayr\u0131ca Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon daha \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d (y\u00fcksek seviyede kalmaya meyilli) ve en son %3,4 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu fark, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (RBA) Yeni Zelanda\u2019daki muadilinden daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgide tutuyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in uzun d\u00f6nemlerinde de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Avustralya\u2019da hizmet enflasyonunun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 RBA\u2019y\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fa iterken, RBNZ yava\u015flayan ekonomi konusunda endi\u015felerini dile getiriyordu. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki bu politika fark\u0131n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak AUD\/NZD \u00e7apraz kurunun (cross; iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) y\u00fckselmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (derivative; de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan t\u00fcreyen finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bunu, AUD\/NZD vadeli i\u015flem (futures; ileri tarihli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kontratlar\u0131 alarak veya parite \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) opsiyonu sat\u0131n alarak uygulayabilir. Bu t\u00fcr bir pozisyon, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n Yeni Zelanda\u2019ya g\u00f6re g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi ve para politikas\u0131 avantaj\u0131ndan do\u011frudan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik RBNZ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi ING: Faiz %2,25\u2019te kal\u0131r, ton g\u00fcvercinle\u015fir; \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131f. Enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, b\u00fcy\u00fcme durma noktas\u0131nda. NZD\u2019de bask\u0131, AUD\/NZD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44111\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}