T\u00fcrkiye Hazine nakit dengesi Mart\u2019ta 279,58 milyar lira a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Bu, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki 94,42 milyar liral\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131k, \u00f6nceki veriye g\u00f6re 185,16 milyar lira artt\u0131. Veriler, Mart\u2019ta nakit a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla geni\u015fledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Hazine\u2019nin nakit a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n -279,58 milyar liraya sert bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin daha fazla bor\u00e7lanma (devletin bor\u00e7 alarak finansman sa\u011flamas\u0131) ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r ve bu durumun T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklenir. USD\/TRY paritesinde (dolar\/TL kuru) yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde tarihi zirvelerin yeniden test edilmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Mart\u2019ta t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun %68,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ortamda enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir a\u00e7\u0131k, enflasyonu besleyici (fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itici) etki yapabilir; bu da bu y\u0131l merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemcileri, y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizin mevcut politika faizi olan %50\u2019de kalaca\u011f\u0131 veya \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine dayal\u0131 faiz swaplar\u0131na (sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) odaklanabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/TRY opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli vadede belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasadaki beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin artmas\u0131 beklenir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, liran\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na pozisyon almak ve azami riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in USD\/TRY\u2019de uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan \u201ccall\u201d) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Benzer mali \u015foklar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde kurda sonraki 1-2 ay i\u00e7inde sert hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Artan risk, \u00fclke bor\u00e7lanma piyasalar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS\u2019leri (kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131; \u00fclkenin borcunu \u00f6deyememe riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta primi) 315 baz puan\u0131n (faiz fark\u0131nda y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 endi\u015fesinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Daha geni\u015f piyasa riskini dengelemek i\u00e7in Borsa \u0130stanbul 100 endeksinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan \u201cput\u201d) almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sert bir kur de\u011fer kayb\u0131 hisse piyasas\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: Hazine\u2019nin Mart nakit dengesi 279,58 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131kla patlad\u0131; \u00f6nceki 94,42 milyardan 185,16 milyar artt\u0131. Bor\u00e7lanma bask\u0131s\u0131 kur\/enflasyon riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr; CDS 315 baz puan\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44109\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}