Brent petrol\u00fc 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131ksa da, bu durum daha geni\u015f piyasalarda 1970\u2019lerdeki gibi bir \u015foka yol a\u00e7mad\u0131. Vadeli i\u015flemler e\u011frisi (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131raland\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat yap\u0131s\u0131), yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrece\u011fini ve fiyatlar\u0131n gerileyece\u011fini bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Brent e\u011frisi belirgin \u015fekilde \u201cbackwardation\u201d (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n uzun vadeli fiyatlardan daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) g\u00f6steriyor; 6 ve 12 ayl\u0131k kontratlar, spot seviyenin (anl\u0131k\/piyasadaki g\u00fcncel fiyat\u0131n) olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyat\u0131 beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, 2022\u2019deki gibi kal\u0131c\u0131 bir petrol \u015fokunu fiyatlam\u0131yor. Nitekim o d\u00f6nemde 6 ayl\u0131k Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, daha geni\u015f varl\u0131k fiyatlamalar\u0131 \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (y\u00fcksek enflasyon + d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme) senaryosunu tam olarak sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Brent vadeli i\u015flemler e\u011frisindeki sert backwardation, 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki mevcut fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Spot fiyatlar, k\u0131sa vadeli jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle y\u00fcksek; ancak 6 ve 12 ay vadeli kontratlar ciddi iskontoyla (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatla) i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu yap\u0131, piyasan\u0131n uzun vadeli bir arz \u015foku (tedarik taraf\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bozulma) beklemedi\u011fini anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc k\u00fcresel stoklar da destekliyor. ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; son veriler 3 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde fazlaya i\u015faret ederek arz endi\u015felerini bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalt\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketicilerde talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edilerek yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 seviyesine \u00e7ekiliyor; bu da temel dinamiklerin (arz-talep dengesi) kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in bu durum, e\u011frinin \u201cd\u00fczle\u015fmesine\u201d (k\u0131sa ve uzun vade fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na) ya da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na) y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 110 dolar \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan (opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat seviyesi) k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak cazip olabilir; fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 beklendi\u011fi gibi s\u00f6nerse bu strateji kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu, mevcut pani\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda azalaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir beklentidir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Ukrayna i\u015fgali sonras\u0131 2022\u2019de benzer ancak daha sert bir backwardation g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O zaman bile piyasa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f, e\u011fri birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde d\u00fczle\u015fmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u015fiddette olsa da benzer bir kal\u0131ba i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu vadeli e\u011fri g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, di\u011fer varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131nda stagflasyon endi\u015felerini de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Piyasa enerji maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine inanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 1970\u2019ler tarz\u0131 bir ekonomik kriz beklentisiyle hisseleri veya tahvilleri agresif bi\u00e7imde satma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Bu da di\u011fer piyasalardaki tepkinin \u015fimdilik neden g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent 100 dolar\u0131 a\u015fsa da piyasa 70\u2019ler \u015foku g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor: sert backwardation, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrece\u011fi ve fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131, zay\u0131f talep, stagflasyon riskini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}