TD Securities\u2019in emtia stratejistleri, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00fcksek tutarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerini \u00f6telemesine neden oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
Enerji, g\u00fcbre ve kimyasal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n erken faiz indirimini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Bu da \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetini\u201d (alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131k yerine faiz kazand\u0131ran ara\u00e7larda kal\u0131nsa elde edilecek getiri) y\u00fckselterek de\u011ferli metalleri bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Stratejistler, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131na gelen sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 da ek bir \u201cters r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u201d (fiyat\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iten etken) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma bitti\u011finde ve enerji fiyat \u015foku (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015f) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015fmesini bekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Faizler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten ve ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131ktan sonra d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen a\u015famas\u0131nda alt\u0131n\u0131n yeniden y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini tahmin ediyorlar. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden 5.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
Mart 2026 enflasyon verisinin, T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE: hane halk\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini izleyen g\u00f6sterge) 3,9 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel referans ham petrol fiyat\u0131) tedarik zinciri endi\u015feleri nedeniyle uzun s\u00fcre varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) gev\u015fetme alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetini\u201d art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayana\u011f\u0131 bir varl\u0131k olan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF: borsada hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor. Bu y\u00f6ntem, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (out-of-the-money call: mevcut fiyattan daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m hakk\u0131) satmakt\u0131r. Bu, fiyatlar\u0131n yatay kalmas\u0131 veya gerilemesi halinde, jeopolitik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm beklenirken prim geliri sa\u011flayabilir. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131na gelen tipik sermaye giri\u015flerinin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 da k\u0131sa vadede durgun veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
TD Securities uyar\u0131yor: Alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir. Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131, enflasyon ve petrol\u00fc y\u00fcksek tutup Fed indirimlerini erteliyor. 2026\u2019da 5.000$ senaryosu, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44102"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44102\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}