GBP\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, Japonya ekonomisine dair endi\u015feleri b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in Yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 var. GBP\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 211,60 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve bir haftan\u0131n zirvelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu Saatiyle 20:00 (\u00c7ar\u015famba 00:00 GMT) i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi kritik saat \u00f6ncesinde temkinliydi. Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201canla\u015fma yapmas\u0131 ya da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131\u201d gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji tesisleri ile sivil altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkeyi hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor. Petrol pahalan\u0131nca ithalat faturas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcr, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ithalat\u0131n ihracattan fazla olmas\u0131) geni\u015fleyebilir. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki durumu dikkate alarak ekonomi ve petrol stoklar\u0131 i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 senaryolar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdiklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon beklentilerinin (gelecekte fiyatlar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi) y\u00fckselmesi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoJ) kademeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha \u201csert\u201d hale getirme) \u00e7izgisinde tutabilir. Ancak enerji maliyetleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131layarak politika normalle\u015fmesini (\u00e7ok gev\u015fek politikalardan daha \u201cnormal\u201d seviyelere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) yava\u015flatabilir. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k da net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, ancak Japonya\u2019ya g\u00f6re petrol fiyatlar\u0131na daha az duyarl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu, enflasyonun ise \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu nedenle faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kadar olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatl\u0131yor. GBP\/JPY\u2019de ek y\u00fckseli\u015fler, \u201cm\u00fcdahale riski\u201d ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. M\u00fcdahale riski, Japon yetkililerin Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na girip h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketleri frenleme ihtimalidir. USD\/JPY 160 seviyesine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k S&P Global Hizmet PMI, Mart\u2019ta \u015eubat\u2019taki 53,9\u2019dan 50,5\u2019e geriledi; \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) 51,2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi), 50\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fcnde geni\u015flemeye, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda daralmaya i\u015faret eden bir anket g\u00f6stergesidir. Bile\u015fik PMI (hizmet+imalat) 53,7\u2019den 50,3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Japonya\u2019da \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak veriler aras\u0131nda \u015eubat Nakit \u00dccret Kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 ve Cari Denge (mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f) bulunuyor. Cari denge, \u00fclkenin mal\/hizmet ticareti ve gelir ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n toplam d\u0131\u015f dengesini g\u00f6sterir. Mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f veri, takvim ve mevsim etkilerinin temizlenmedi\u011fi ham veridir.<\/p>\n
Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n temelinde, Yen\u2019in enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fe hassasiyeti ve bunun Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkisi var. 2022\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fgali sonras\u0131 WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131 aylarda %60\u2019tan fazla artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. WTI (West Texas Intermediate), ABD\u2019de referans kabul edilen ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda do\u011frudan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r bir fiyat \u015foku yaratabilir. Bu mekanizma, enerji ithalat\u0131na daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 Yen\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ancak Japon makamlar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale riski yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. 2024\u2019te dolar\/yen kuru 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerine itildi\u011finde Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (MoF) piyasaya defalarca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015fti. GBP\/JPY\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 ve spek\u00fclatif y\u00fckseli\u015fler benzer bir savunma hamlesini tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle pariteyi \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satmak\u201d (sahip olunmayan varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle satmak) do\u011frudan ve y\u00fcksek riskli olabilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlin taraf\u0131nda ise yurt i\u00e7i ekonomide yava\u015flama sinyalleri tabloyu karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Mart Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n 50,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi, durgunlu\u011fa yak\u0131n seyre i\u015faret ediyor. Buna ra\u011fmen enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in BoE\u2019nin y\u00fcksek faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, GBP\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu \u201cdebit call spread\u201d ile kurmak olabilir. Debit call spread, bir al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) sat\u0131n al\u0131p ayn\u0131 vadede daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satmakt\u0131r. Call opsiyonu, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 verir. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131, opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi seviyedir. Bu yap\u0131, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr; getiriyi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken riski de \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. B\u00f6ylece faiz fark\u0131 (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n kur \u00fczerindeki etkisi) ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 hareketlerden yararlan\u0131rken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n resmi m\u00fcdahalesini provoke edebilecek daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerin alt\u0131nda k\u00e2r tavan\u0131 koyulmu\u015f olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku Yen\u2019i zorlarken GBP\/JPY 211,60\u2019la haftal\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n: Trump\u2019\u0131n kritik saati \u00f6ncesi tansiyon y\u00fcksek. BoE\u2019nin y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisi Sterlin\u2019i destekliyor; y\u00fckseli\u015fte m\u00fcdahale riski ve call spread stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44096"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44096\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}