ABD N\u00fcfus Say\u0131m B\u00fcrosu\u2019na g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri (en az 3 y\u0131l kullan\u0131lan, \u201cuzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc\u201d \u00fcr\u00fcnlere verilen sipari\u015fler) \u015fubatta %1,4 ya da 4,4 milyar dolar azalarak 315,5 milyar dolara indi. Bu, ocaktaki %0,5\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan geldi ve beklenen %0,5\u2019lik gerilemeden daha k\u00f6t\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ula\u015ft\u0131rma hari\u00e7 yeni sipari\u015fler %0,8 artt\u0131. Savunma hari\u00e7 yeni sipari\u015fler %1,2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ula\u015ft\u0131rma ekipmanlar\u0131 6,1 milyar dolar ya da %5,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 106,1 milyar dolara geriledi. Bu kalem son be\u015f ay\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Verinin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada dolar \u00fczerinde belirgin bir etkisi olmad\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,92 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flama, son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlardaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7er) verisinin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,1\u2019de y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesiyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. Bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Fed) zor bir noktaya getiriyor: Sanayiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in faiz indirimi, enflasyonun yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 (gelecekteki fiyat\/olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnden al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca tek bir olas\u0131 faiz indirimini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, oynakl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan faydalanmaya y\u00f6nelik pozisyon) fikrini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00f6zellikle sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde. B\u00fcy\u00fck sanayi ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) straddle veya strangle stratejileri (opsiyonla kurulan, fiyat\u0131n sert y\u00fckselmesi ya da d\u00fc\u015fmesi durumunda kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar) kullanmak, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn resesyon kayg\u0131s\u0131yla sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi veya beklenmedik bir te\u015fvikle h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi halinde f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile \u201c\u015fahin\u201d para politikas\u0131 (enflasyonu kontrol i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, sakin bir d\u00f6nemi olas\u0131 k\u0131lm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ula\u015ft\u0131rmadaki s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, havac\u0131l\u0131k ve a\u011f\u0131r i\u015f makineleri \u00fcreticilerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev stratejiler (opsiyon gibi, fiyat hareketine ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011ferlenen finansal ara\u00e7lar) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Y\u00fcksek sipari\u015f birikimi (backlog: teslim edilmemi\u015f mevcut sipari\u015f sto\u011fu) olup sipari\u015f iptalleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan \u015firketlerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ba\u015flayan e\u011filime ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak daha anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, t\u00fcm piyasaya kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almadan ekonominin en k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik daha hedefli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pozisyonu sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri \u015fubatta %1,4 d\u00fc\u015ferek 315,5 milyar dolara indi; beklentiden k\u00f6t\u00fc. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma sert zay\u0131f. Dolar sakin. Fed\u2019in enflasyon-b\u00fcy\u00fcme ikilemi s\u00fcrerken sanayide volatilite, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44089\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}