{"id":44086,"date":"2026-04-07T18:27:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T18:27:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abdde-savunma-haric-dayanikli-mal-siparisleri-subatta-12ye-geriledi-onceki-veri-05-duzeyindeydi\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T18:27:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T18:27:05","slug":"abdde-savunma-haric-dayanikli-mal-siparisleri-subatta-12ye-geriledi-onceki-veri-05-duzeyindeydi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abdde-savunma-haric-dayanikli-mal-siparisleri-subatta-12ye-geriledi-onceki-veri-05-duzeyindeydi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de savunma hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri \u015fubatta %-1,2\u2019ye geriledi; \u00f6nceki veri %0,5 d\u00fczeyindeydi."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de savunma hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri \u015eubat ay\u0131nda %1,2 geriledi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde %0,5 art\u0131\u015f kaydedilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130malatta Zay\u0131fl\u0131k Netle\u015fti<\/h3>\n<p>Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ISM \u0130malat PMI endeksinin sonraki on ay boyunca 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalarak \u201cdaralma\u201d b\u00f6lgesinde seyretmesiyle do\u011fruland\u0131. (PMI, sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksidir; 50\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, alt\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme anlam\u0131na gelir.) \u00d6rne\u011fin endeks 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru uzun s\u00fcre 47 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu da imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu yayg\u0131n yava\u015flama, \u015eubat 2025 verisinin ge\u00e7ici de\u011fil, net bir e\u011filimin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n<p>2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ekonomik belirsizlik, \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d y\u00fcksek tuttu ve korunma (hedging) i\u015flemlerini pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. (\u00d6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanmad\u0131r; y\u00fckseldi\u011finde opsiyonlar genelde daha pahal\u0131 olur. Hedging, fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flemlerdir.) Piyasadaki \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinen VIX ortalama 19 civar\u0131nda seyretti; bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemlerinde birka\u00e7 kez 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (VIX, S&#038;P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesidir.) Bu ortam, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 bekleyen veya opsiyonlarla savunmac\u0131 pozisyon kuran yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in avantajl\u0131yd\u0131. (Opsiyon, belirli bir fiyattan alma-satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir.)<\/p>\n<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle politikada s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu korumak zorunda kald\u0131. (\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon, genelde g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyondur.) Bu tablo risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinden, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden faydalanan i\u015flemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde belirgin bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini s\u00fcrekli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131. (Vadeli i\u015flem\/futures, ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesidir.)<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi ise olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme i\u015faret eden sinyaller g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Mart 2026 ISM imalat endeksi 50,3 ile bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin ard\u0131ndan ilk kez \u201cgeni\u015fleme\u201d b\u00f6lgesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u015fe yarayan yaln\u0131zca savunmac\u0131 pozisyonlardan kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Pahal\u0131 \u201ca\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (put) bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 dikkatli \u015fekilde satmak ve d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) spread\u2019leri olu\u015fturmaya ba\u015flamak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Put, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\/yararlanma sa\u011flayan opsiyondur; call, y\u00fckseli\u015fe y\u00f6nelik opsiyondur. Spread, ayn\u0131 varl\u0131kta farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla opsiyon kombinasyonudur. D\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rler, ekonominin gidi\u015fat\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdir.)<\/p>\n<h3>D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe Haz\u0131rl\u0131k<\/h3>\n<p>Bu erken toparlanma i\u015fareti dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki opsiyonlar da yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Yakla\u015fan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve istihdam gibi veriler ekonominin dipten d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frularsa, piyasa Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki seyrini yeniden fiyatlamak zorunda kalabilir. Bu da, toparlanma hik\u00e2yesi piyasada yayg\u0131nla\u015fmadan \u00f6nce daha dik bir getiri e\u011frisi beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilir. (Getiri e\u011frisi, farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir; \u201cdikle\u015fme\u201d, uzun vadeli faizlerin k\u0131sa vadeye g\u00f6re daha fazla y\u00fckselmesi veya k\u0131sa vadenin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi anlam\u0131na gelir.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de savunma hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 sipari\u015fler %1,2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; PMI aylarca darald\u0131. VIX y\u00fcksek, Fed s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131. Ancak ISM Mart 2026\u2019da 50,3: d\u00f6ng\u00fcsellere ve e\u011fri dikle\u015fmesine f\u0131rsat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44086\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}