ABD\u2019de ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k (u\u00e7ak, otomobil gibi oynak kalemler) hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri \u015eubat\u2019ta %0,8 artt\u0131. Beklenti %0,5\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
\u015eirketlerin yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren bu veri, ekonominin beklenenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u00e7 ivmeye sahip oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Mart ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sekt\u00f6rlerde eklenen i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) verisinin 295 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesiyle birlikte bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n, yaz aylar\u0131 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cfaiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc\u201dn\u00fcn (faizlerin kademeli \u015fekilde indirilece\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7) zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekecek.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayal\u0131 faiz \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Haziran\u2019da faiz indirimi ihtimali muhtemelen azald\u0131. Bu da Haziran veya Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (ABD\u2019de gecelik faiz referans\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) sat\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu strateji, Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki mesajlar\u0131nda daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 ve veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 (kararlar\u0131n\u0131 gelen verilere g\u00f6re \u015fekillendiren) bir duru\u015f sergileyece\u011fi beklentisine dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksleri i\u00e7in bu haber iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki yaratabilir ve dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu olsa da, faiz indirimlerinin gecikmesi de\u011ferlemeleri (hisselerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2r ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine g\u00f6re pahal\u0131\/ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi) bask\u0131layabilir; \u00f6zellikle teknoloji hisselerinde. Bu nedenle, Nasdaq 100 endeksinde put spread (olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma amac\u0131yla bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, faiz endi\u015fesiyle olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 \u201chedge\u201d (korunma) olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 da destekleyebilir. Son \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin enflasyonun %3,1 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan (kolay gerilemeyen) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi, dolar cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimlerine k\u0131yasla daha cazip hale getiriyor. Euro\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY – dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call – belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD \u00e7ekirdek dayan\u0131kl\u0131 sipari\u015fler %0,8 artt\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdamla Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n faiz indirimi zorla\u015ft\u0131. Faizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek, SOFR short cazip; Nasdaq put spread hedge, DXY call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44085\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}