ABD\u2019de savunma hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri \u015fubatta %1,2 geriledi. Bu, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat verisinin savunma hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015flerinde %1,2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermesi, izledi\u011fimiz ekonomik so\u011fumay\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Ocaktaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesi, \u015firketlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda frene bast\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019teki y\u00fcksek faizlerin (bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131) \u015firketlerin harcama planlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f \u015firket harcamas\u0131 verisi, mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni endekslerinde (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergeler) g\u00f6r\u00fclen gerilemeyle birlikte ekonomide yava\u015flama sinyali veriyor. Ge\u00e7en cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanan mart istihdam raporu da \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (maa\u015flardaki y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck h\u0131z\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6stererek bunu destekledi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe girerken ekonomideki yava\u015flaman\u0131n tutarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bunun sonucu olarak, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) may\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi yeniden art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (piyasada Fed faizine ili\u015fkin beklentiyi yans\u0131tan kontratlar) i\u015faret etti\u011fi fiyatlamaya g\u00f6re, Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) beklentilere g\u00f6re keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda strateji a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en \u00f6nemli unsur, beklentilerdeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri (hisse piyasas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyonlar) taraf\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nde pozisyon alma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f endekslerde veya d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren, belirli bir endeks\/sekt\u00f6r\u00fc izleyen fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak portf\u00f6y\u00fc koruma yolu sunar. VIX\u2019in (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 14\u2019ten 18\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, bu koruman\u0131n maliyetinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda bu veri, tahvil getirilerinin (tahvil faizi) zirveyi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarla (Treasury note futures options: ABD tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 opsiyonlar) faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. 2019\u2019daki benzer yava\u015flamalarda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar g\u00fcvenli liman ararken devlet tahvilleri genelde daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da etkiler; Fed\u2019in daha az agresif olmas\u0131 genelde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Euro veya Japon yeni \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) gibi, dolar\u0131n gerilemesinden faydalanan stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) son \u00fc\u00e7 haftada %2 gerilerken, bu temel veri zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de savunma hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri \u015fubatta %1,2 d\u00fc\u015ferek ocaktaki %0,5 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sildi: so\u011fuma teyit. Fed\u2019in may\u0131sta art\u0131\u015f ihtimali erirken, hedge, tahvil ve dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44084"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44084\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}