ABD\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri \u015eubat\u2019ta %1,4 geriledi. Bu, -%0,5\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veri, ay i\u00e7in beklentiden daha zay\u0131f bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen de\u011fi\u015fimi (-%1,4) piyasa beklentisiyle (-%0,5) kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015flerindeki bu belirgin sapma, ekonominin gidi\u015fat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131 sinyali. -%1,4\u2019l\u00fck bu olumsuz s\u00fcrpriz, \u015firketlerin yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n (makine\/ekipman gibi uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcn al\u0131mlar\u0131) ve imalat faaliyetinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalarda daha \u201cdefansif\u201d bir duru\u015fa (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nan, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlara) y\u00f6nelmek daha rasyonel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f piyasa endeksleri (SPY) ve \u00f6zellikle sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu (ETF) olan XLI \u00fczerinde \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan\/al\u0131m hakk\u0131 de\u011fil sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son Sanayi \u00dcretim Endeksi verisiyle de destekleniyor: Endeks ge\u00e7en ay %0,6 darald\u0131. Bu da imalatta yava\u015flamay\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Bu tablo, May\u0131s vadeli (vade sonu May\u0131s olan) opsiyonlarla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korumay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f veriler faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131ndansa faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede devlet tahvili getirilerinin (tahvil faizi) gerilemesini bekliyoruz; bu nedenle TLT gibi Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131na (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik al\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bak\u0131yoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer bir durum 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; zay\u0131f imalat verileri dizisi, tahvil getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ememi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik belirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) genelde y\u00fckselir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) \u015fu anda 16 civar\u0131nda ve g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu da oynakl\u0131k \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini\/opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor. Piyasada korkunun artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine do\u011frudan pozisyon almak i\u00e7in VIX \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal verisi tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil; T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin 97,5\u2019e gerilemesiyle de ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde sinyal veriyor. \u015eirket harcamalar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k ile t\u00fcketici alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki bozulman\u0131n birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, temkinli duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri \u015eubat\u2019ta %1,4 d\u00fc\u015ferek beklenti (-%0,5) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; imalat ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda zay\u0131flama sinyali. Piyasada defansif duru\u015f, SPY\/XLI put; TLT ve VIX call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44083","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44083"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44083\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}