{"id":44052,"date":"2026-04-07T04:21:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T04:21:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-chf-08000-direncinden-geri-cekildi-07979-civarinda-islem-goruyor-cift-tepe-formasyonu-asagi-yonlu-risk-yaratiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T04:21:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T04:21:15","slug":"usd-chf-08000-direncinden-geri-cekildi-07979-civarinda-islem-goruyor-cift-tepe-formasyonu-asagi-yonlu-risk-yaratiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-chf-08000-direncinden-geri-cekildi-07979-civarinda-islem-goruyor-cift-tepe-formasyonu-asagi-yonlu-risk-yaratiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF, 0,8000 direncinden geri \u00e7ekildi; 0,7979 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, \u00e7ift tepe formasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk yarat\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"2025\u2019te bu d\u00f6neme d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda USD\/CHF paritesi 0,8000 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla (diren\u00e7) kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u201c\u00e7ift tepe\u201d (fiyat\u0131n ayn\u0131 b\u00f6lgeden iki kez d\u00f6nmesi; y\u00fckseli\u015fin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder) ihtimaline dikkat \u00e7ekiyor, Ocak 2025 diplerinden gelen toparlanman\u0131n ivme kaybetti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyordu. Bu tablo, y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in uyar\u0131 niteli\u011findeydi.\n\nBug\u00fcn ise tablo tamamen farkl\u0131: Parite 0,9150 civar\u0131nda belirgin \u015fekilde daha yukar\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ana neden, para politikas\u0131nda net ayr\u0131\u015fma. G\u00fcvercin (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) ile daha kararl\u0131 bir tutum sergileyen ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki fark, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen teknik sinyallerin etkisini ikinci plana itti.\n\n<h3>\u0130svi\u00e7re Enflasyonu ve SNB\u2019de Politika De\u011fi\u015fimi<\/h3>\nSNB ge\u00e7en ay, enflasyonun belirgin bi\u00e7imde gerilemesiyle politika faizini 1,50\u2019ye indirdi. Son veriler, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re) yaln\u0131zca %1,4 oldu\u011funu do\u011frulad\u0131; bu oran bankan\u0131n %2 hedefinin alt\u0131nda. Bu durum, ekonomi zay\u0131flarsa SNB\u2019nin ilave faiz indirimi yapabilmesi i\u00e7in alan yarat\u0131yor.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ekonomisi diren\u00e7li kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da Fed\u2019i daha \u015fahin (faiz indirimine daha mesafeli) bir hatta tutuyor. Mart ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 yeni i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) verisi, 215 bin ki\u015filik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti; bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine hemen y\u00f6nelme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) USD\/CHF i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trend, daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. 0,9200 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) call almak veya bo\u011fa call spread (bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call satmak; risk ve maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlar) gibi stratejiler daha dengeli getiri-risk sunabilir. S\u00fcregelen momentum, bu t\u00fcr y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\nAncak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. 0,9080 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; trend g\u00f6stergesi) yak\u0131n\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, beklenmedik bir duyarl\u0131l\u0131k (piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131) de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilir. Son CFTC verileri (ABD\u2019de vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 d\u00fczenleyicisinin pozisyon raporu), franka kar\u015f\u0131 net k\u0131sa (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonun y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; yani tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olursa hareket sertle\u015febilir.\n\n<h3>Volatilite Ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve Opsiyon Fiyatlamas\u0131<\/h3>\nParitede ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) trendin s\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131. Bu da opsiyon almay\u0131 nispeten daha ucuz hale getiriyor ve piyasada dalgalanma artmadan \u00f6nce pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Bu ortam, riski ba\u015ftan belli olan (defined-risk) y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in daha elveri\u015fli.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/CHF\u2019te oyun de\u011fi\u015fti: 2025\u2019te 0,8000\u2019deki \u201c\u00e7ift tepe\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131 yerini 0,9150\u2019ye b\u0131rakt\u0131. SNB g\u00fcvercin, Fed \u015fahin; faiz fark\u0131 trendi destekliyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite, defined-risk opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44052","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44052"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44052\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}