{"id":44038,"date":"2026-04-07T03:18:51","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T03:18:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/100-seviyesine-yakin-abd-dolar-endeksi-iranin-ateskesi-reddetmesi-ve-enflasyon-kaynakli-yaklasan-oynaklikla-toparlandi\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T03:18:51","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T03:18:51","slug":"100-seviyesine-yakin-abd-dolar-endeksi-iranin-ateskesi-reddetmesi-ve-enflasyon-kaynakli-yaklasan-oynaklikla-toparlandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/100-seviyesine-yakin-abd-dolar-endeksi-iranin-ateskesi-reddetmesi-ve-enflasyon-kaynakli-yaklasan-oynaklikla-toparlandi\/","title":{"rendered":"100 Seviyesine Yak\u0131n ABD Dolar Endeksi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ate\u015fkesi Reddetmesi ve Enflasyon Kaynakl\u0131 Yakla\u015fan Oynakl\u0131kla Toparland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc sert dalgaland\u0131; yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,30\u2019dan 99,75\u2019e geriledi, ard\u0131ndan 100,00 civar\u0131na toparland\u0131. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i grafikte (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketini g\u00f6steren grafik) 200 d\u00f6nemlik hareketli ortalama (son 200 veri noktas\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131; teknik analizde trend filtresi olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131r) toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u201cRisk alma\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p hisse gibi daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) havas\u0131 hisseleri destekledi.\n\nM\u0131s\u0131rl\u0131, Pakistanl\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk arabulucular\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 45 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes tasla\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan reddedildi. Tahran, garantilerle birlikte kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sava\u015f sonunu kabul edece\u011fini belirtirken, WTI petrol (ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 112 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve dikkatler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc son tarihine \u00e7evrildi.\n\n

Temel Veriler ve Piyasa Tepkisi<\/h3>\nISM Hizmetler PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) 55 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 54 geldi; \u015eubat\u2019taki 56,1\u2019den geriledi. \u0130stihdam Endeksi 51,8\u2019den 45,2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ferek Aral\u0131k 2023\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00d6denen Fiyatlar Endeksi (girdi maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131) 63\u2019ten 70,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; Yeni Sipari\u015fler ise 58,6\u2019dan 60,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\n\n\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Mart FOMC Tutanaklar\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz karar toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131) izlenecek. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u015eubat PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fi enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; \u00e7ekirdek PCE (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7) ayl\u0131k %0,4 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3 bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca 4\u00c7 GSYH (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme) ve i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verileri gelecek. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) ayl\u0131k %0,9 (\u00f6nceki %0,3) gelmesi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131 %2,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 bekleniyor; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. UoM (Michigan \u00dcniversitesi) t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 53,3\u2019ten 52\u2019ye gerileyebilir.\n\n5 dakikal\u0131k grafikte DXY 100,03 seviyesinde; destek 100,00, ard\u0131ndan 99,96 ve 99,90. Diren\u00e7 100,03 ve 100,10 civar\u0131nda.\n\nABD dolar\u0131 100,00 \u00e7evresinde y\u00f6n bulmakta zorlan\u0131yor. D\u00fcn gelen veriler \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nem) benzeri bir tabloya i\u015faret etti: istihdam alt endeksi sert d\u00fc\u015ferken \u00f6denen fiyatlar y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n

Volatilite ve Konumlanma<\/h3>\nBu haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE verisi. Piyasa ayl\u0131k %0,9\u2019luk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f bekliyor; sapma olursa sert fiyat hareketi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu nedenle, y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok \u201cvolatilite\u201dye (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) odaklanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin maj\u00f6r paritelerde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu) gibi opsiyon stratejileri, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.\n\n\u0130ran gerilimi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarak enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Dolar hen\u00fcz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) al\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6rmese de, piyasa stresinin kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in WTI ham petrol kontratlar\u0131 ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyonlar gibi) yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 1990 K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebildi.\n\nZay\u0131flayan istihdam ile y\u00fcksek enflasyonun ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi Fed\u2019i zor durumda b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu \u201cpolitika belirsizli\u011fi\u201d en net \u015fekilde faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde (faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan vadeli i\u015flemler) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr; bu nedenle Fed Funds vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (piyasan\u0131n Fed faiz patikas\u0131na dair beklentisini g\u00f6sterir) olas\u0131 beklenti de\u011fi\u015fimleri i\u00e7in izlenmeli. 2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi, faiz patikas\u0131 beklentileri verilerle tekrar fiyatlanabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DXY sert dalgalan\u0131p 100 \u00e7evresinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 200 HO y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. ISM\u2019de istihdam \u00e7\u00f6kerken fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131: stagflasyon sinyali. \u0130ran gerilimi petrol\u00fc 112$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutuyor; g\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE, PCE ve Fed tutanaklar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44038\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}