{"id":44032,"date":"2026-04-07T00:20:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T00:20:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bir-macd-sinyali-nasdaqin-2025teki-donusunu-dogru-sekilde-isaret-etti-benzer-kosullar-simdi-yeniden-ortaya-cikiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T00:20:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T00:20:59","slug":"bir-macd-sinyali-nasdaqin-2025teki-donusunu-dogru-sekilde-isaret-etti-benzer-kosullar-simdi-yeniden-ortaya-cikiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bir-macd-sinyali-nasdaqin-2025teki-donusunu-dogru-sekilde-isaret-etti-benzer-kosullar-simdi-yeniden-ortaya-cikiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Bir MACD sinyali Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n 2025\u2019teki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011fru \u015fekilde i\u015faret etti; benzer ko\u015fullar \u015fimdi yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Nisan 2025\u2019e geri d\u00f6nersek, g\u00fcnl\u00fck Nasdaq grafi\u011finde 17.000 seviyesi civar\u0131nda net bir **MACD kesi\u015fimi** (MACD \u00e7izgisinin sinyal \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131) g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck ve bu sinyal 9.000 puanl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 sinyal, yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, bug\u00fcn yeniden grafiklerimizde olu\u015fuyor. Bu durum, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bitiyor olabilece\u011fine ve olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n24.000 zirvelerinden gelen son geri \u00e7ekilme, piyasada a\u00e7\u0131klanan son **T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE)** verisi sonras\u0131 olu\u015fan tedirginlikle h\u0131z kazand\u0131. Veride **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,1 seviyesinde inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki **temkinli duru\u015fu** (faiz indirimi konusunda acele etmeyen, s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu koruyan mesajlar) sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu yayg\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik, piyasada ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fclen yap\u0131ya \u00e7ok benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olu\u015fturdu. \u015eimdi MACD \u00e7izgisi sinyal \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n e\u011filiminin yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n<h3>G\u00fcnl\u00fck Grafik Y\u00f6n Filtresi<\/h3>\n\u0130\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafik bir **filtre** i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr; MACD sinyal \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yaln\u0131zca **al\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131** olur. K\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc dalgalanmalar\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 eder, geri \u00e7ekilmeleri **pozisyona giri\u015f** i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendiririz. Bu disiplin \u00f6nemlidir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olas\u0131 yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda i\u015flem yapma riskini azalt\u0131r.\n\n4 saatlik grafi\u011fe indi\u011fimizde, bir **d\u00fczeltme Dalga 2**\u2019nin (Elliott Dalga teorisinde y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gelen geri \u00e7ekilme a\u015famas\u0131) tamamlanmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasadaki endi\u015feyi g\u00f6steren **VIX** (beklenen oynakl\u0131k\/endi\u015fe endeksi) 21\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra yeniden 17 seviyesine do\u011fru geriliyor; bu da geri \u00e7ekilmenin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Birden fazla zaman diliminden gelen bu teyit, y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosuna olan g\u00fcveni art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n\u0130zledi\u011fimiz net giri\u015f b\u00f6lgesi Nasdaq\u2019ta 23.600 civar\u0131. 30 dakikal\u0131k grafikte, fiyat bu b\u00f6lgeye girdikten sonra MACD\u2019nin tekrar sinyal \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu kesi\u015fim, **uzun pozisyon** (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) i\u00e7in tetikleyici olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** almak ya da **vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi (futures)** ile i\u015flem yapmak gibi.\n\nBu kurgu, **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in net bir risk-getiri \u00e7er\u00e7evesi sunuyor. **Call spread** (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) ya da basit bir **uzun call** ile olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 hamleden faydalan\u0131labilir; **zarar kes (stop)** ise d\u00fczeltme dalgas\u0131n\u0131n dip seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na konumlanabilir. Yap\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir **Dalga 3** (Elliott\u2019ta genelde en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131) olu\u015fursa potansiyel getiri y\u00fcksek olabilir.\n\n<h3>Net Ge\u00e7ersiz Kalma Kural\u0131<\/h3>\nG\u00fcnl\u00fck MACD \u00e7izgisi yeniden sinyal \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131na inerse, bu i\u015flem fikri ge\u00e7ersiz olur. B\u00f6yle bir durumda y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kal\u0131r ve teredd\u00fct etmeden kenara \u00e7ekiliriz. Bu net ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyesi, i\u015flem riskini y\u00f6netmenin temel unsurudur.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nasdaq\u2019ta Nisan 2025\u2019teki 9.000 puanl\u0131k ralliyi tetikleyen MACD kesi\u015fimi yeniden geldi. T\u00dcFE\/Fed kaynakl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 dip sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; 23.600 izle, uzun tetik: intraday MACD. Stop: g\u00fcnl\u00fck MACD alt kesi\u015fim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44032\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}