{"id":44027,"date":"2026-04-07T00:18:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T00:18:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnyden-bob-savage-petrol-ve-jeopolitik-risklerin-usd-uzerindeki-baskiyi-artirmasiyla-mudahalelerde-artisa-ve-apac-duyarliliginda-zayiflamaya-dikkat-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T00:18:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T00:18:08","slug":"bnyden-bob-savage-petrol-ve-jeopolitik-risklerin-usd-uzerindeki-baskiyi-artirmasiyla-mudahalelerde-artisa-ve-apac-duyarliliginda-zayiflamaya-dikkat-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnyden-bob-savage-petrol-ve-jeopolitik-risklerin-usd-uzerindeki-baskiyi-artirmasiyla-mudahalelerde-artisa-ve-apac-duyarliliginda-zayiflamaya-dikkat-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019den Bob Savage, petrol ve jeopolitik risklerin USD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla m\u00fcdahalelerde art\u0131\u015fa ve APAC duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda zay\u0131flamaya dikkat \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"Asya-Pasifik\u2019te piyasa havas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan kal\u0131yor. Jeopolitik riskler ve y\u00fckselen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, d\u00f6viz (FX: \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa) ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131r\u0131yor. S\u00fcregelen yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 b\u00f6lge para birimlerini bask\u0131l\u0131yor ve borsa hareketlerini daha dalgal\u0131 hale getiriyor.\n\nMart ay\u0131nda G\u00fcney Kore, Tayvan ve Hindistan\u2019da yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n net sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lge para birimi zay\u0131flarken, piyasaya m\u00fcdahale (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kur \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) faaliyetleri art\u0131yor.\n\nHindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Reserve Bank of India), Hindistan Rupisi\u2019ndeki (INR) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz kurallar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Ad\u0131mlar aras\u0131nda bankalar\u0131n \u201cFX Net Open Position\u201d\u0131na (bankan\u0131n kur riskine a\u00e7\u0131k net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu; y\u00fcksekse kur hareketlerine daha fazla maruz kal\u0131r) tavan getirilmesi ve yerel piyasadaki arac\u0131lar\u0131n INR \u201cNDF\u201d (non-deliverable forward: teslimats\u0131z vadeli i\u015flem; vade sonunda d\u00f6viz teslimi yerine fark nakit \u00f6denir) sunmas\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rlama yer al\u0131yor.\n\nEndonezya Rupisi (IDR), Filipin Pesosu (PHP) ve G\u00fcney Kore Wonu (KRW) en k\u0131r\u0131lgan para birimleri olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu para birimleri ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tarihi dip seviyelere yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Devam eden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar, s\u00fcregelen oynakl\u0131kla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.\n\nPozisyon verileri, kur riskinden korunma (hedging: kur hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 zarar ihtimalini azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) talebinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. iFlow verilerine g\u00f6re IDR ve INR \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n normalin \u00fczerinde tuttu\u011fu) seviyeden \u201caz ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n normalin alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu) seviyeye d\u00f6nerken, Tayvan Dolar\u0131 (TWD) belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u201caz ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d konumda kal\u0131yor.\n\n\u201cAz ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d pozisyonlar ve sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131, performans\u0131n \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re d\u00fczensiz olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde (risk-on: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi ortam) baz\u0131 para birimleri geride kalabilir. D\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki bask\u0131 (terms of trade: ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fcc\u00fc; bozulmas\u0131 \u00fclkeyi olumsuz etkiler) b\u00f6lgenin baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinde temel bir y\u00fck olmaya devam ediyor.\n\nAsya piyasalar\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lgan hava s\u00fcrerken b\u00f6lge para birimleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmak gerekiyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor (krediye eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131, faiz ve risk primlerinin y\u00fckselmesi) ve b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131 ve jeopolitik belirsizlik, daha temkinli pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri \u00f6nemli bir unsur haline geliyor ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 rupiyi korumak i\u00e7in aktif bi\u00e7imde dolar sat\u0131yor; d\u00f6viz rezervleri yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde bir haftada 5 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde geriledi. Bu t\u00fcr hamleler k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; korumas\u0131z (hedge edilmemi\u015f) k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getirirken, ani ve sert hareketlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nIDR, KRW ve PHP \u00f6zellikle risk alt\u0131nda. USD\/IDR paritesi (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 fiyat\u0131) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 16.200\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcney Kore wonu da dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 1.370\u2019in \u00fczerine zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu seviye ge\u00e7mi\u015fte maliye otoritelerinden s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131 tetiklemi\u015fti. Bu tablo, s\u00f6z konusu para birimlerinin mevcut bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n saflar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, bu paritelerde \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u201cOpsiyon\u201d almak (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) spot pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya g\u00f6re daha temkinli olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc politika kaynakl\u0131 ani kur d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar. IDR, PHP ve KRW sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonu (al\u0131ma hak veren opsiyon; dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na oynar) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nPozisyon verileri, bu para birimlerinin \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d seviyelerden belirgin \u015fekilde \u201caz ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d seviyelere ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. Sahipli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, genel piyasa havas\u0131 iyile\u015fse bile bu para birimlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alarm zilleri Asya\u2019da \u00e7al\u0131yor: jeopolitik risk ve 90$ \u00fczeri Brent, FX\/ekside oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahaleler s\u00fcrerken IDR-KRW-PHP dipte; RBI s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor, opsiyonlarda vol y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44027\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}