{"id":44025,"date":"2026-04-07T00:16:49","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T00:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnynin-bob-savagei-petrol-ve-jeopolitik-risklerin-para-birimleri-uzerinde-baski-olusturmasiyla-apacte-kirilganlasan-risk-istahi-ve-artan-mudahalelere-dikkat-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T00:16:49","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T00:16:49","slug":"bnynin-bob-savagei-petrol-ve-jeopolitik-risklerin-para-birimleri-uzerinde-baski-olusturmasiyla-apacte-kirilganlasan-risk-istahi-ve-artan-mudahalelere-dikkat-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnynin-bob-savagei-petrol-ve-jeopolitik-risklerin-para-birimleri-uzerinde-baski-olusturmasiyla-apacte-kirilganlasan-risk-istahi-ve-artan-mudahalelere-dikkat-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019nin Bob Savage\u2019\u0131, petrol ve jeopolitik risklerin para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131yla APAC\u2019te k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015fan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve artan m\u00fcdahalelere dikkat \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"Artan jeopolitik riskler ve y\u00fckselen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Asya-Pasifik (APAC) genelinde d\u00f6viz ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda dalgalanmay\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert hareket etmesi) art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 b\u00f6lge para birimlerini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor, borsalardaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor; piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131 \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lgan\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.\n\nMart ay\u0131nda G\u00fcney Kore, Tayvan ve Hindistan\u2019da yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar net sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Endonezya rupisi (IDR), Filipinler pesosu (PHP) ve G\u00fcney Kore wonu (KRW) dahil bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lge para birimi, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor.\n\n<h3>Merkez Bankalar\u0131 Piyasa Eri\u015fimini S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor<\/h3>\nHindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), Hindistan rupisinin (INR) de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz kurallar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Ad\u0131mlar aras\u0131nda bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz Net A\u00e7\u0131k Pozisyonlar\u0131na (bankan\u0131n d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan toplam a\u00e7\u0131k riski) \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r getirilmesi ve yurti\u00e7i (onshore) i\u015flem yapan arac\u0131lar\u0131n INR NDF s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (NDF: teslimats\u0131z vadeli i\u015flem; vade sonunda d\u00f6viz teslimi yerine sadece fiyat fark\u0131 nakit \u00f6denir) sunmas\u0131na k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar yer al\u0131yor.\n\nPozisyonlanma verileri, korunma (hedging: kur\/hisse riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nde i\u015flem alma) talebinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. iFlow verilerine g\u00f6re IDR ve INR \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d (portfolio a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek) konumdan \u201caz ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d (portfolio a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) konuma ge\u00e7ti; Tayvan dolar\u0131 (TWD) ise belirgin \u015fekilde \u201caz ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d seviyede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nRaporda \u201caz ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d pozisyonlar ve s\u00fcren yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n dalgalanmay\u0131 canl\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca baz\u0131 para birimlerinin, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde bile zay\u0131f kalabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor; bunun nedeni ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki (terms of trade: ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na oran\u0131) bozulma olarak g\u00f6steriliyor.\n\n<h3>APAC Piyasalar\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Volatilite Stratejileri<\/h3>\nAsya-Pasifik piyasalar\u0131nda alg\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmaya devam ediyor; y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve s\u00fcren jeopolitik risk bunu besliyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkeler ve para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ortam, piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin en hassas d\u00f6viz paritelerinde straddle veya strangle al\u0131nmas\u0131 (straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131n\u0131r; strangle: farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131n\u0131r; ama\u00e7 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fil b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketi fiyatlamakt\u0131r).\n\nB\u00f6lgede belirgin bir sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mart 2026\u2019da G\u00fcney Kore hisselerinde yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n net sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 7 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015farak rekor k\u0131rmas\u0131 bu tabloyu destekliyor. Bu t\u00fcr toplu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar, b\u00f6lgesel hisse endekslerinde riskten korunmak ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin KOSPI 200 gibi g\u00f6stergelerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, daha fazla \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan pozisyon sa\u011flar (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131).\n\nHindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son makroihtiyati (financial stability: finansal istikrar\u0131 korumaya d\u00f6n\u00fck) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ve baz\u0131 t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmelere y\u00f6nelik denetimi, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n spek\u00fclasyona (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem) daha az toleransl\u0131 hale geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u201cm\u00fcdahale riski\u201d, sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flemler (futures: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) yerine daha uzun vadeli opsiyonlar (opsiyon: hak verir, zorunluluk vermez) daha kontroll\u00fc bir ara\u00e7 say\u0131labilir. Politika a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d (short squeeze: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alanlar\u0131n zorla al\u0131ma d\u00f6nmesiyle h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) yaratabilece\u011finden temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekir.\n\nEndonezya rupisi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 16.550 civar\u0131nda, Kore wonu ise 1.410\u2019un \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bu iki para birimi 2022\u2019deki \u00e7alkant\u0131dan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere yakla\u015farak en k\u0131r\u0131lganlar aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki g\u00f6rece istikrar\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kontroll\u00fc riskle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in s\u00f6z konusu para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak \u00f6neriliyor (call opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; burada \u201cdolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse\u201d kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir).\n\nPozisyonlanma verileri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Hindistan rupisi ve Endonezya rupisindeki pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 zaten azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu para birimlerinin \u201caz ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d alana ge\u00e7ti\u011fini do\u011fruluyor. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 toparlansa bile bu para birimlerinin geride kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasada zorunlu al\u0131c\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131r. Bu nedenle bu para birimlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmelerin, yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>APAC\u2019ta jeopolitik risk ve 95 dolar \u00fczeri petrol, yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla kurlar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor, borsalarda volatiliteyi t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor. RBI s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; IDR\/KRW k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44025\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}