{"id":44023,"date":"2026-04-06T23:21:57","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T23:21:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/daha-zayif-ism-pmi-ve-abd-iran-ateskes-gorusmelerine-dair-haberlerin-ortasinda-usd-jpy-yenin-sinirli-guclenmesiyle-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T23:21:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T23:21:57","slug":"daha-zayif-ism-pmi-ve-abd-iran-ateskes-gorusmelerine-dair-haberlerin-ortasinda-usd-jpy-yenin-sinirli-guclenmesiyle-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/daha-zayif-ism-pmi-ve-abd-iran-ateskes-gorusmelerine-dair-haberlerin-ortasinda-usd-jpy-yenin-sinirli-guclenmesiyle-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Daha zay\u0131f ISM PMI ve ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair haberlerin ortas\u0131nda USD\/JPY, yenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Yen\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa destek bulmas\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair haberler sonras\u0131 zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla hafif geriledi. Parite 159,45 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) ise 99,84 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,34 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\nAxios, ABD, \u0130ran ve b\u00f6lgesel arabulucular\u0131n olas\u0131 45 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yazd\u0131. Reuters ise iki taraf\u0131n da iki a\u015famal\u0131 bir teklif ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunun Pazartesi kadar erken ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erebilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\n

Ate\u015fkes G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri Odakta<\/h3>\nSNN\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Bekayi, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik diplomatik yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve zaman\u0131 geldi\u011finde a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Net bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmazsa petrol fiyatlar\u0131, enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) riski ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n (faiz belirleyen kurumlar) kararlar\u0131nda g\u00fcndemde kalabilir.\n\nJaponya\u2019da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi enflasyonu art\u0131rabilir ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) kademeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d hale getirme) \u00e7izgisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. Ancak Japonya enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek enerji maliyeti b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de bask\u0131layabilir. Piyasalar Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar iki art\u0131\u015f bekliyor.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00\u2019a yak\u0131n seyri m\u00fcdahale (Japon yetkililerin Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan girip Dolar satmas\u0131) riskini y\u00fcksek tutuyor. ABD taraf\u0131nda ise piyasalar art\u0131k Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizleri 2026\u2019ya kadar sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; oysa daha \u00f6nce bu y\u0131l en az iki indirim bekleniyordu. Ayr\u0131ca ISM Hizmet PMI (ABD hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ekonomik aktiviteyi \u00f6l\u00e7en anket g\u00f6stergesi) 56,1\u2019den 54\u2019e geriledi; 55 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\nOlas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi, jeopolitik risk primi (siyasi\/askeri riskler nedeniyle fiyatlara eklenen ek maliyet) azald\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015fmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturuyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) \u015eubat\u2019taki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n zirvesinde %15\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu haberlerle \u015fimdiden %11\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelere indi. Diplomatik ilerleme s\u00fcrerse, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar paritede \u201ck\u0131sa straddle\u201d gibi stratejilerle oynakl\u0131k satmaya (fiyat\u0131n sakin kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan opsiyon stratejisi) ba\u015flayabilir.\n\n

Fed Fiyatlamas\u0131 De\u011fi\u015fiyor<\/h3>\nBar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ile ABD verilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 (\u00f6r. ISM Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131) birlikte, Fed\u2019e dair g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) belirgin bir yeniden fiyatlama var: Kontratlar art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019a yak\u0131n g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta %10\u2019un alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu durum, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tamamen rafa kalkan faiz indirimi beklentilerinin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde tekrar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019de 160,00 seviyesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde; Japon otoritelerinin s\u00fcrekli m\u00fcdahale tehdidi de bunu peki\u015ftiriyor. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zeminde ve bu sert diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) varken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve riskin daha \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 159,00 alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cput\u201d opsiyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, net riskli (zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) bir \u015fekilde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131k imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir; tetikleyici ate\u015fkesin netle\u015fmesi ya da do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale olabilir.\n\nJaponya\u2019n\u0131n 2022 ve 2024\u2019teki b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerinde paritenin saatler i\u00e7inde birka\u00e7 y\u00fcz pip (kurda \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc unutulmamal\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, Japon yetkililerin genelde piyasa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat h\u0131zl\u0131 ve fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011fi) ve Fed politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fim gibi k\u00fcresel bir kataliz\u00f6r (ani piyasa hareketini tetikleyebilecek geli\u015fme) bunu destekledi\u011finde devreye girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ko\u015fullar h\u0131zla olu\u015fuyor; 160,00 yak\u0131n\u0131nda \u201cuzun\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak bu nedenle olduk\u00e7a riskli.\n\nAte\u015fkes, BoJ\u2019un planlar\u0131n\u0131 da zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir; petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) ge\u00e7en ay varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u015fimdiden geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu da BoJ\u2019un bu y\u0131l beklenen iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapma aciliyetini azaltabilir. Fed\u2019in daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmaya e\u011filimli) tarafa kaymas\u0131 ve BoJ\u2019un daha az \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na e\u011filimli) hale gelme ihtimali aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olmaya devam ediyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes haberleri Dolar\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131nca USD\/JPY 159,45\u2019e indi, DXY geriledi. 160,00\u2019da m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek; Fed indirim ihtimali art\u0131yor, oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44023\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}