{"id":44007,"date":"2026-04-06T22:17:54","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T22:17:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ocbc-stratejistleri-gerilimin-dusecegine-dair-umutlarin-erken-oldugunu-ve-abd-iran-catismasi-ortaminda-brentin-risk-priminin-yuksek-seyrini-korudugunu-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T22:17:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T22:17:54","slug":"ocbc-stratejistleri-gerilimin-dusecegine-dair-umutlarin-erken-oldugunu-ve-abd-iran-catismasi-ortaminda-brentin-risk-priminin-yuksek-seyrini-korudugunu-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ocbc-stratejistleri-gerilimin-dusecegine-dair-umutlarin-erken-oldugunu-ve-abd-iran-catismasi-ortaminda-brentin-risk-priminin-yuksek-seyrini-korudugunu-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"OCBC stratejistleri, gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine dair umutlar\u0131n erken oldu\u011funu ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ortam\u0131nda Brent\u2019in risk priminin y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 alt\u0131nc\u0131 haftas\u0131na girdi ve tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek net bir yol g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in gerilimin azalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki piyasa beklentileri \u201cerken\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendirildi.\n\nGe\u00e7en hafta, gerilimin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi umuduyla risk alg\u0131s\u0131 toparland\u0131 ve Brent haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki varil ba\u015f\u0131na 119 ABD dolar\u0131na yak\u0131n zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha sert (\u015fahin: faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kararl\u0131) ad\u0131mlar ataca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131; ABD dolar\u0131 ise G10 para birimleri (geli\u015fmi\u015f 10 \u00fclkenin ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti.\n\n<h3>Strait Of Hormuz Risk Outlook<\/h3>\nHaberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gemi trafi\u011fini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in Umman ile bir protokol haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu, bo\u011faz\u0131n tamamen kapanmas\u0131 riskini azalt\u0131yor; ancak yine de tam normalle\u015fme yerine \u201ckontroll\u00fc k\u0131s\u0131tlama\u201d anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n\nBa\u015fkan Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmazsa \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elektrik santrallerini ve k\u00f6pr\u00fclerini yok etmekle tehdit etti. Ana senaryo, Brent\u2019in 6\u201312 ay i\u00e7inde 85\u201370 ABD dolar\u0131na gev\u015femesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.\n\n2025\u2019teki ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi umutlar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde erken kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Brent ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 119 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131ran o d\u00f6nem, piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir ders niteli\u011finde. O zaman ya\u015fanan, ger\u00e7ek bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil \u201ckontroll\u00fc aksama\u201d idi; benzer bir tablo yeniden olu\u015fuyor olabilir.\n\nBrent \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 92 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasa Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik son \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131yla yap\u0131lan sald\u0131r\u0131lar) riskini fiyatl\u0131yor. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 48\u2019e y\u00fckselerek bu y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar aras\u0131ndaki tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gemi ge\u00e7i\u015fi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen belirsizli\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Hedging And Spread Trade Setup<\/h3>\nBu ortam, sadece \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckselecek diye al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 riskli hale getiriyor; korunma (hedge: olumsuz fiyat hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) almak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Arz \u015fokuna (beklenmedik arz kesintisi) kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (out-of-the-money call: bug\u00fcn k\u00e2rda olmayan, fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine bahis) \u00f6zellikle haziran ve temmuz vadelerinde al\u0131mlar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, 2025\u2019te uzun s\u00fcren gerilime haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalananlar\u0131n ciddi kay\u0131plar ya\u015famas\u0131yla \u00f6\u011frenilen dersin do\u011frudan bir yans\u0131mas\u0131.\n\nOPEC+\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca sabit tutma karar\u0131 da arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha s\u0131k\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu da takvim spread i\u015flemlerini (calendar spread: yak\u0131n vade kontrat\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p daha uzak vadeyi satmak) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yak\u0131n vadeli arz endi\u015felerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat priminden (yak\u0131n vadenin daha pahal\u0131 olmas\u0131) faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011fuyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki uzun aksama, bu t\u00fcr yap\u0131sal arz a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n (piyasada kal\u0131c\u0131 arz yetersizli\u011fi) man\u015fetlerden daha uzun s\u00fcrebildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar rahatlad\u0131 san\u0131rken risk masas\u0131 yeniden geriliyor: ABD\u2013\u0130ran krizi 6. haftada, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de \u201ckontroll\u00fc k\u0131s\u0131tlama\u201d endi\u015fesi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Brent 92 dolarda; OVX zirvede. Hedge ve takvim spreadleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44007"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44007\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}