{"id":43971,"date":"2026-04-06T17:22:02","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:22:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/paskalya-tatili-nedeniyle-islemlerin-sinirli-kalmasiyla-usd-jpy-15940a-dogru-gerilerken-iranda-baris-umutlari-dolar-uzerinde-baski-olusturuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T17:22:02","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:22:02","slug":"paskalya-tatili-nedeniyle-islemlerin-sinirli-kalmasiyla-usd-jpy-15940a-dogru-gerilerken-iranda-baris-umutlari-dolar-uzerinde-baski-olusturuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/paskalya-tatili-nedeniyle-islemlerin-sinirli-kalmasiyla-usd-jpy-15940a-dogru-gerilerken-iranda-baris-umutlari-dolar-uzerinde-baski-olusturuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Paskalya tatili nedeniyle i\u015flemlerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla USD\/JPY 159,40\u2019a do\u011fru gerilerken, \u0130ran\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f umutlar\u0131 dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,40 civar\u0131na geriledi. Paskalya Pazartesi nedeniyle bir\u00e7ok piyasan\u0131n kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u015flem hacmini (piyasadaki al\u0131m-sat\u0131m miktar\u0131n\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tuttu. ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, arabuluculardan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sona erdirmeye y\u00f6nelik bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve plan\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan parite Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 159,35\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc.  \n\nRisk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Do\u011fu Saati ile 20.00\u2019ye kadar a\u00e7\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde sivil altyap\u0131 ve enerji tesislerinin hedef al\u0131nabilece\u011fine dair uyar\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131yla tansiyon d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu durum ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi azalt\u0131rken, Dolar\u2019da uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n (Dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.  \n\n<h3>Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131 Ve Yen \u00dczerindeki Bask\u0131<\/h3>  \nParitedeki hareketler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Japon Yeni \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Japonya b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ham petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ve mevcut petrol seviyesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve kamu maliyesi (devletin gelir-gider dengesi) \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.  \n\nYen, \u015eubat sonundan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 de\u011fer kaybetti ve ge\u00e7en hafta 160,00 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, kur hareketlerinin \u201cfazlas\u0131yla spek\u00fclatif\u201d (k\u0131sa vadeli beklentilere dayal\u0131) oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve Tokyo\u2019nun Yen\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in t\u00fcm ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu belirtti.  \n\nABD verileri Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131n (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yarat\u0131lan yeni i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) Mart\u2019ta 178 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; beklenti 60 bindi. Net istihdam\u0131n Mart 2025\u2019e g\u00f6re \u201c\u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi\u201d belirtildi. \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n uzamas\u0131 halinde istihdam\u0131n zarar g\u00f6rebilece\u011fine dair endi\u015feler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.  \n\n<h3>Piyasa Ko\u015fullar\u0131 Ve Strateji<\/h3>  \nGe\u00e7en y\u0131lki geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan Japon yetkililer piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti (kur \u00fczerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapt\u0131). Bu ad\u0131m ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun zamanla d\u00fc\u015fmesi, paritenin zirvelerden gerilemesini sa\u011flad\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da daha istikrarl\u0131 seyretti. WTI ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 86 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye 2025\u2019teki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelere g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu durum Yen \u00fczerindeki yap\u0131sal bask\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131; ancak temel sorun olan faiz fark\u0131 (\u00fclkelerin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) devam ediyor.  \n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin \u015fu anda 151,75 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, paran\u0131n mevcut seviyeden daha uzak bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan Yen alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) sat\u0131p prim geliri (opsiyonu satan\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Varsay\u0131m, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki m\u00fcdahalenin piyasada \u201ctavan\u201d etkisi yarataca\u011f\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu strateji ayr\u0131ca \u201ccarry\u201d gelirinden (faizi y\u00fcksek para birimini al\u0131p faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan\u0131 satmaktan do\u011fan faiz avantaj\u0131) faydalan\u0131r: Dolar\u2019da uzun, Yen\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak faiz getirisi sa\u011flar.  \n\nUSD\/JPY i\u00e7in ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) son bir y\u0131lda belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 1 ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k %8 civar\u0131nda; 2025\u2019te m\u00fcdahale endi\u015fesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ift haneli seviyelerin alt\u0131nda. Bu, piyasan\u0131n rehavete kap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k almak (b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan i\u015flem yapmak), \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) gibi stratejileri cazip hale getiriyor. Fed veya BoJ\u2019dan s\u00fcrpriz bir ad\u0131m, \u015fu an fiyatlara tam yans\u0131mayan sert bir hareket ba\u015flatabilir.  \n\nSon veriler, Chicago Mercantile Exchange\u2019te (CME; b\u00fcy\u00fck vadeli i\u015flem borsas\u0131) ticari olmayan spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin (korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011fil, getiri ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem yapanlar) Yen\u2019de rekor seviyeye yak\u0131n net k\u0131sa pozisyon (Yen\u2019in d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle toplamda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun 140 bin kontrat\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak bu kadar u\u00e7 pozisyonlanma, s\u0131k\u00e7a sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu da ani bir \u201cshort squeeze\u201d (k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131n panikle pozisyon kapatmas\u0131yla h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) riskini art\u0131rabilir ve Yen\u2019i h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k, piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda ani de\u011fi\u015fime kar\u015f\u0131 Yen\u2019de uzun pozisyonu al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ve y\u00fcksek potansiyelli bir korunma (hedge; riski azaltma) arac\u0131 haline getirebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY 159,40\u2019a \u00e7ekildi; tatil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacmi art\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130ran gerilimi azal\u0131nca Dolar solukland\u0131. Petrol Yeni zorluyor, m\u00fcdahale riski masada. Faiz fark\u0131 s\u00fcrerken opsiyon\/volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43971","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43971"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43971\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}