{"id":43970,"date":"2026-04-06T17:21:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:21:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/mufgden-lloyd-chan-iran-gerilimi-yukselen-abd-tahvil-getirileri-ve-guclu-istihdam-verileri-dolar-carry-islemlerinin-cazibesini-artiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T17:21:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:21:05","slug":"mufgden-lloyd-chan-iran-gerilimi-yukselen-abd-tahvil-getirileri-ve-guclu-istihdam-verileri-dolar-carry-islemlerinin-cazibesini-artiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mufgden-lloyd-chan-iran-gerilimi-yukselen-abd-tahvil-getirileri-ve-guclu-istihdam-verileri-dolar-carry-islemlerinin-cazibesini-artiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG\u2019den Lloyd Chan: \u0130ran gerilimi, y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verileri Dolar carry i\u015flemlerinin cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"\u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 jeopolitik gerilimler, ABD tahvil faizlerindeki (getiri oran\u0131) y\u00fckseli\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileri ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentilerinin azalmas\u0131yla birlikte ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Piyasalarda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) havas\u0131 da dolara talebi art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri %3,8\u2019in \u00fczerinde ve fiili federal fonlama faizinin (Fed\u2019in bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik faizi i\u00e7in hedef band\u0131n\u0131n piyasadaki ortalamas\u0131) \u00fcst\u00fcnde seyrediyor. Piyasalar art\u0131k bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi fiyatlam\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131n \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi\u201d (carry: y\u00fcksek faizli para birimini elde tutman\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz avantaj\u0131) \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.\n\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan Enerji Ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 Riski<\/h3>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n aksamas\u0131 riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; Asya ekonomileri daha fazla etkilenebilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; riskler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (daha fazla art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) tarafa e\u011fimli.\n\nMakale, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fi bilgisini i\u00e7eriyor.\n\nDevam eden jeopolitik riskler ve ABD\u2019den gelen destekleyici veriler, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli ortam\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda bir tankere ili\u015fkin ge\u00e7en haftaki olay, piyasalar\u0131 temkinli tuttu ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6neltti. Bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana strateji dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na oynayan (dolar uzun) pozisyonlar.\n\nFed\u2019in duru\u015fu da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Ge\u00e7en Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanan Mart ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi 245 bin ki\u015filik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam piyasas\u0131 ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizinin %3,85\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimini g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir neden b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, faiz fark\u0131ndan gelen dolar avantaj\u0131 (carry) y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\n

Uzun S\u00fcre Y\u00fcksek Faiz Dolar\u0131n Ta\u015f\u0131ma Getirisini Destekliyor<\/h3>\n2024\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda ve 2025 boyunca piyasalar\u0131n Fed faiz indirimlerini tekrar tekrar fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon ve diren\u00e7li ekonomi nedeniyle bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu tecr\u00fcbe, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d s\u00f6yleminin (faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi) daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Fed\u2019in aniden g\u00fcvercinle\u015fece\u011fine (g\u00fcvercin: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) y\u00f6nelik t\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) stratejiler \u00f6nemli risk ta\u015f\u0131yor.\n\nGerilimler enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fcksek tutuyor; WTI tipi ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu durum, Avrupa ve Asya gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve d\u0131\u015f denge \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratarak para birimlerini dolara kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayabilecek se\u00e7enekler (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ETF\u2019lerinde (borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019leri (call spread: ayn\u0131 varl\u0131kta farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki al\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan, maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nDo\u011frudan d\u00f6viz temas\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) al\u0131m opsiyonu almak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar temas\u0131na geni\u015f bir \u015fekilde oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. Daha hedefli i\u015flemler aras\u0131nda Japon yeni i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; yen, ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na (interest rate differential: iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle hassas. Bu ortamda USD\/JPY paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeopolitik tansiyon ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d temas\u0131 dolar\u0131 parlat\u0131yor: ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler %3,8+; Fed indirimi fiyatlanm\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski petrol\u00fc 92$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutup riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve dolar talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43970","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43970"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43970\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}