{"id":43969,"date":"2026-04-06T17:20:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/iranla-baris-anlasmasi-umutlari-usd-jpyyi-15940a-yakin-seviyelere-cekti-paskalya-tatili-nedeniyle-islem-hacimleri-dustu\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T17:20:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:20:19","slug":"iranla-baris-anlasmasi-umutlari-usd-jpyyi-15940a-yakin-seviyelere-cekti-paskalya-tatili-nedeniyle-islem-hacimleri-dustu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/iranla-baris-anlasmasi-umutlari-usd-jpyyi-15940a-yakin-seviyelere-cekti-paskalya-tatili-nedeniyle-islem-hacimleri-dustu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran\u2019la bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 umutlar\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019yi 159,40\u2019a yak\u0131n seviyelere \u00e7ekti; Paskalya tatili nedeniyle i\u015flem hacimleri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,40 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacminin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Paskalya Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ile birlikte ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki genel zay\u0131flama nedeniyle Avrupa erken i\u015flemlerinde 159,35\u2019e geriledi. Haberlere g\u00f6re ABD ve \u0130ran, arabulucular\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sona erdirmek i\u00e7in sundu\u011fu bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve plan\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na olan talebi azaltt\u0131.\n\nABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Do\u011fu Saati ile (ABD\u2019nin do\u011fu k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131 saat dilimi) 20.00\u2019ye kadar yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmazsa sivil altyap\u0131 ve enerji tesislerini yok etme tehdidinin ard\u0131ndan da endi\u015fe azald\u0131. Bu durum, dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (uzun) pozisyonlar\u0131nda (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan i\u015flemler) azalt\u0131ma gidilmesini te\u015fvik etti.\n\n<h3>Piyasa Ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve G\u00fcvenli Liman Ak\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h3>\nHareketler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ham petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Japonya \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmaya devam etti. Yen, \u015eubat sonundan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 de\u011fer kaybetti ve ge\u00e7en hafta 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131; bu seviye, \u201cresm\u00ee m\u00fcdahale\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla (kamu otoritesinin piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla m\u00fcdahalesi) ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.\n\nJaponya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00f6viz hareketlerinin \u201c\u00e7ok spek\u00fclatif\u201d (k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131, temelden kopuk) g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve Tokyo\u2019nun t\u00fcm ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD\u2019de ise Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yeni istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) Mart ay\u0131nda 178 bin artarak 60 bin beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131; ancak net istihdam\u0131n Mart 2025\u2019e g\u00f6re \u201c\u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi\u201d ifade edildi ve sava\u015f riskleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir unsur olarak g\u00f6sterildi.\n\n<h3>Faiz Fark\u0131 ve M\u00fcdahale Riski<\/h3>\nBug\u00fcn pariteyi yukar\u0131 iten temel dinamikler ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca bir kez k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ad\u0131mla %0,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karabildi. ABD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) ise ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizini %4,75\u2019te tuttu. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131, \u201ccarry trade\u201d i\u015flemlerini (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde getiri arama) destekliyor; bu da yen sat\u0131p dolar alma e\u011filimini art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n2025\u2019te dolar\u0131 destekleyen jeopolitik riskler ise geriledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden 80\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck band\u0131na gerilemesini sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu durum yen i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuz etkiyi azalt\u0131yor; ancak faizlerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkisini tek ba\u015f\u0131na dengelemeye yetmiyor.\n\nParite yeniden 158,00\u2019a do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken yeni bir m\u00fcdahaleyi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. 2025 \u00f6rne\u011fi, yetkililerin harekete ge\u00e7ebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle 160,00-161,00 b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a USD\/JPY\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak daha riskli hale geliyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar) olas\u0131 sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u201cput\u201d almay\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) veya \u201cbear call spread\u201d kurmay\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fi beklentisiyle, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p\/al\u0131p risk ve getiriyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan opsiyon stratejisi) de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n\nBu yakla\u015f\u0131m, parite bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgisi\u201dne yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201dta (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) g\u00f6r\u00fclecek art\u0131\u015ftan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler. 160,50 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015fkas\u0131na verip prim toplama), k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lardan \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyonun pe\u015fin bedeli) toplamak i\u00e7in etkili olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015f, bu t\u00fcr y\u00fckseli\u015flerin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY 159,40 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131: Dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, \u0130ran-ABD gerilimi azal\u0131yor. Ancak faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i besliyor. 160-161 band\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor; opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43969\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}