{"id":43955,"date":"2026-04-06T16:16:49","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T16:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/societe-generale-ekonomistleri-euro-bolgesi-enerji-sokuna-daha-direncli-giriyor-petrol-dogalgaz-yogunlugu-daha-dusuk\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T16:16:49","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T16:16:49","slug":"societe-generale-ekonomistleri-euro-bolgesi-enerji-sokuna-daha-direncli-giriyor-petrol-dogalgaz-yogunlugu-daha-dusuk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/societe-generale-ekonomistleri-euro-bolgesi-enerji-sokuna-daha-direncli-giriyor-petrol-dogalgaz-yogunlugu-daha-dusuk\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale ekonomistleri: Euro B\u00f6lgesi enerji \u015fokuna daha diren\u00e7li giriyor; petrol-do\u011falgaz yo\u011funlu\u011fu daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck"},"content":{"rendered":"Societe Generale ekonomistleri, euro b\u00f6lgesinin son enerji fiyat \u015fokuna ge\u00e7mi\u015fe g\u00f6re daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ve petrol ile do\u011fal gaza daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 (ayn\u0131 \u00fcretim i\u00e7in daha az enerji harcayan) \u015fekilde girdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. NiGEM (ekonomik senaryo sim\u00fclasyonu yapan makro model) hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f temel senaryoda euro b\u00f6lgesi GSYH\u2019sini (y\u0131ll\u0131k toplam \u00fcretim) yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,2\u20130,3 y\u00fczde puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.\n\nEuro b\u00f6lgesinde zay\u0131f d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan toparlanman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi bekleniyor. Bunu Almanya\u2019daki mali te\u015fvik (kamu harcamalar\u0131\/vergi ad\u0131mlar\u0131), dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim, yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ve konut piyasas\u0131ndaki canlanman\u0131n destekleyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin tahmin d\u00f6neminde \u201cpotansiyelin\u201d (ekonominin enflasyonu art\u0131rmadan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131) \u00fczerinde seyretmesi bekleniyor.\n\n<h3>Fiscal Outlook And Deficits<\/h3>\nEuro b\u00f6lgesi kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (devletin gelir-gider fark\u0131) 2024\u2019te GSYH\u2019nin %3,1\u2019inden 2025 ve 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; bu, mali duru\u015fun hafif destekleyici oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Almanya\u2019da kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2025\u2019te GSYH\u2019nin %2,4\u2019\u00fcnden 2026\u2019da %4,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131; di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin de \u201cmali alan\u0131\u201d (b\u00fct\u00e7eyi bozmadan harcama art\u0131rma imk\u00e2n\u0131) kullanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nMan\u015fet enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da d\u00e2hil genel enflasyon) 2027\u2019de %2 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 bekleniyor ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) yak\u0131n vadede ad\u0131m beklenmiyor. 2026 Aral\u0131k ve 2027 Haziran\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor; bunun daha erken tarihe, \u00f6rne\u011fin Haziran\u2019a \u00e7ekilme riski de var.\n\n<h3>Rates And Policy Outlook<\/h3>\nFaiz cephesinde ECB\u2019nin \u015fimdilik bekle-g\u00f6r pozisyonunda oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Eurostat verilerinde man\u015fet enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,1\u2019de seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak (faizi art\u0131rarak talebi so\u011futmak) i\u00e7in acil bir bask\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz e\u011frisindeki (farkl\u0131 vadelerde faiz seviyeleri) dalgalanman\u0131n pahal\u0131 fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu nedenle ilk ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, muhtemelen bu y\u0131l\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecek tarihte faiz beklentisine dayal\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) dalgalanma satmak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir. Ana risk, ECB\u2019nin Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, yeni tahminlerin mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131n orta vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkisine i\u015faret etmesi h\u00e2linde piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SocGen\u2019e g\u00f6re Euro B\u00f6lgesi enerji \u015fokuna daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131; fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 GSYH\u2019yi 0,2\u20130,3 puan t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir. Almanya te\u015fvikiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlan\u0131r. A\u00e7\u0131klar artarken ECB bekle-g\u00f6r; 2026-27\u2019de iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43955"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43955\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}