{"id":43954,"date":"2026-04-06T16:16:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T16:16:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/societe-generale-ekonomistleri-euro-bolgesinin-enerji-sokuna-daha-dayanikli-girecegini-daha-az-petrol-ve-dogal-gaz-kullanacagini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T16:16:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T16:16:12","slug":"societe-generale-ekonomistleri-euro-bolgesinin-enerji-sokuna-daha-dayanikli-girecegini-daha-az-petrol-ve-dogal-gaz-kullanacagini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/societe-generale-ekonomistleri-euro-bolgesinin-enerji-sokuna-daha-dayanikli-girecegini-daha-az-petrol-ve-dogal-gaz-kullanacagini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale ekonomistleri, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin enerji \u015fokuna daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 girece\u011fini; daha az petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kullanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Societe Generale ekonomistleri, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin yeni bir enerji \u015fokuna girdi\u011fini; ancak son on y\u0131la k\u0131yasla daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve petrol ile gaz kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n (enerji yo\u011funlu\u011fu: b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in gereken enerji miktar\u0131) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede bulundu\u011funu belirtiyor. Temel senaryolar\u0131nda NiGEM (makroekonomik tahmin\/sim\u00fclasyon modeli) sim\u00fclasyonlar\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH\u2019sini (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,2\u20130,3 puan azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesapl\u0131yor.\n\nEkonominin zay\u0131f d\u00f6nemden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 ve tahmin ufku boyunca potansiyelin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekliyorlar. Bunu destekleyen unsurlar olarak Almanya\u2019n\u0131n mali te\u015fviki (devlet harcamalar\u0131\/vergi ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma), g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketim, yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve konut piyasas\u0131nda toparlanmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yorlar. Bu de\u011ferlendirme, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 temel senaryoya dayan\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Euro Area Fiscal Outlook<\/h3>\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131: devletin gelir-gider fark\u0131) 2024\u2019te GSYH\u2019nin %3,1\u2019inden 2025 ve 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2025\u2019te GSYH\u2019nin %2,4\u2019\u00fcnden 2026\u2019da %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin de mali alan\u0131 (b\u00fct\u00e7ede harcama yapmaya izin veren bo\u015fluk) kullanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\n\nMan\u015fet enflasyonun (genel enflasyon oran\u0131) 2027\u2019de %2 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 beklenirken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) yak\u0131n vadede ad\u0131m atmas\u0131na gerek g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorlar. Aral\u0131k 2026 ve Haziran 2027\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 100\u2019de biri; 25 bp = %0,25) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyorlar; bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131n daha erken gelmesi riski de var.\n\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin mevcut enerji fiyat\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6netti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu, ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u015foklara g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ba\u015flayan toparlanma sa\u011flam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 tahmini %0,5 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu ivme, ekonominin ray\u0131nda ilerledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, s\u00fcrekli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici talebi ve kamu harcamalar\u0131 destekliyor; \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda onaylanan Almanya mali paketi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Etkileri \u015fimdiden g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Almanya fabrika sipari\u015fleri \u015eubat 2026\u2019ya kadar \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay artt\u0131. Buna konut piyasalar\u0131ndaki toparlanma da eklenince, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin potansiyelin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\n<h3>Implications For Rate Markets<\/h3>\nT\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri faiz, kur gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu tablo, ECB\u2019nin sonunda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; kritik konu zamanlama. Temel beklenti ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019da gelmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerini fiyatlayan piyasa) ad\u0131m\u0131 erken fiyatl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durum, sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir ECB\u2019ye oynayanlar i\u00e7in Euribor vadeli i\u015flemleri (Euro bankalararas\u0131 faiz oran\u0131na dayal\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) gibi ara\u00e7larda f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturabilir.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik ana risk, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerin ECB\u2019yi daha erken harekete zorlamas\u0131; hatta Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 kadar erken. Mart 2026 enflasyonu %2,6 ile beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi; bu da daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 savunan) \u00fcyelerin elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte daha sert bir faiz patikas\u0131na (faizlerin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi senaryosu) kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) korunma, temkinli bir strateji olabilir.\n\nAvrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn 2022 krizinden bu yana ne kadar iyile\u015fti\u011fi de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ithalat kapasitesindeki b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f ve yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, ekonomiyi fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na daha az duyarl\u0131 hale getirdi. Gaz depolar\u0131 \u015fu anda %65 dolu; bu oran nisan ba\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde ve olas\u0131 yeni \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir tampon sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale\u2019e g\u00f6re Euro B\u00f6lgesi yeni enerji \u015fokuna ra\u011fmen daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131: enerji yo\u011funlu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015ferken fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 GSYH\u2019den 0,2\u20130,3 puan g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr. B\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; ECB\u2019nin ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019da. Mali a\u00e7\u0131klar y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43954"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43954\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}