{"id":43948,"date":"2026-04-06T15:18:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T15:18:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-ile-iran-arasindaki-ateskes-iyimserligi-risk-istahini-artirirken-avustralya-dolari-06910-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T15:18:28","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T15:18:28","slug":"abd-ile-iran-arasindaki-ateskes-iyimserligi-risk-istahini-artirirken-avustralya-dolari-06910-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-ile-iran-arasindaki-ateskes-iyimserligi-risk-istahini-artirirken-avustralya-dolari-06910-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkes iyimserli\u011fi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, Avustralya dolar\u0131 0,6910 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa saatlerinde 0,6910 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkes umuduna ba\u011fl\u0131 artan \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) pariteye destek verdi.\n\nBloomberg\u2019in Axios\u2019a dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 habere g\u00f6re ABD, \u0130ran ve b\u00f6lgesel arabulucular 45 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olas\u0131 bir ate\u015fkesi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Haberde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 48 saat i\u00e7inde anla\u015fma ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu belirtilirken, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc son tarihinden \u00f6nce anla\u015fman\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.\n\n<h3>ABD Verileri ve Fed G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nPazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de mart ay\u0131 ISM Hizmet PMI verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. ISM Hizmet PMI (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyetlerin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizleri \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini art\u0131rabilir. Bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.\n\nABD, mart ay\u0131nda 178 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydetti. Bu veri, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki 133 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan geldi; s\u00f6z konusu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f -92 binden -133 bine revize edildi. Sonu\u00e7, 60 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131.\n\n\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 martta %4,3\u2019e geriledi. Raporda, bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcndeki (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar ve i\u015f arayanlar\u0131n toplam\u0131) sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.\n\nAvustralya\u2019da RBA (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131), yap\u0131\u015fkan seyreden enflasyonla (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 4,10\u2019a y\u00fckseltti. Piyasalar may\u0131sta yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor. Westpac ise 2026\u2019da \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f daha bekliyor; bu senaryoda politika faizi 4,85\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar ve bu seviye en son Kas\u0131m 2008\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\n<h3>Geriye D\u00f6n\u00fck Bak\u0131\u015f ve G\u00fcncel Piyasa<\/h3>\n2025\u2019in bu d\u00f6nemindeki de\u011ferlendirmede AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,6910 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi, jeopolitik beklentiler ve merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tahminlerin etkili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn parite 0,7150 civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bunun ana nedeni, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi. Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, art\u0131k t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 (opsiyon\/forward gibi dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ana temas\u0131.\n\nRBA, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi ve politika faizi Westpac\u2019\u0131n 2025\u2019te i\u015faret etti\u011fi 4,85 seviyesinde. Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor; 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %3,9 ile geldi. Bu durum, piyasada yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklenmemesini destekliyor ve Avustralya dolar\u0131na temel (makro veriye dayal\u0131) destek veriyor.\n\nABD taraf\u0131nda ise 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla tablo de\u011fi\u015fti. \u0130stihdam piyasas\u0131 genel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da (Mart 2026 verisi 190 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor), enflasyon belirgin \u015fekilde geriledi. Mart 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE %2,8 oldu. Bu da piyasada, y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir Fed faiz indirimi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nBu net \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde ad\u0131m atmas\u0131), \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/USD\u2019de g\u00fcc\u00fcn korunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; haziran vadede 0,7250\u20130,7300 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) hedeflenebilir. RBA\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrerken, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re hen\u00fcz k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131p prim toplamak da bir se\u00e7enek olabilir; 0,7000 seviyesi parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\n2025\u2019te an\u0131lan ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir anla\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7sa da jeopolitik gerilimler ani fiyat hareketi riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor. AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni volatilite\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) 3 ayl\u0131k kontratlarda yakla\u015f\u0131k %11 ile y\u00fcksek. Bu belirsizlikte call spread (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call satarak maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemler tercih edilebilir; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fe maruz kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD\u2019de f\u0131rsat m\u0131? Parite 0,6910\u2019dan 0,7150\u2019ye g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve Fed\u2019de indirim beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; jeopolitik riskler volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor, opsiyon stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43948"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43948\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}