{"id":43880,"date":"2026-04-06T07:18:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T07:18:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/08000in-uzerinde-orta-dogudaki-belirsizligin-guvenli-liman-talebini-artirmasiyla-usd-chf-dolarin-yukselisi-esliginde-tirmanisini-surduruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T07:18:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T07:18:16","slug":"08000in-uzerinde-orta-dogudaki-belirsizligin-guvenli-liman-talebini-artirmasiyla-usd-chf-dolarin-yukselisi-esliginde-tirmanisini-surduruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/08000in-uzerinde-orta-dogudaki-belirsizligin-guvenli-liman-talebini-artirmasiyla-usd-chf-dolarin-yukselisi-esliginde-tirmanisini-surduruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"0,8000\u2019in \u00fczerinde, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizli\u011fin g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla USD\/CHF dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi e\u015fli\u011finde t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi; pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,8010 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Hareket, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlik nedeniyle \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) talebiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden kaynakland\u0131.  \n\nHaberlere g\u00f6re ABD, \u0130ran ve b\u00f6lgesel arabulucular olas\u0131 45 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici durmas\u0131) i\u00e7in \u015fartlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bloomberg\u2019in aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Axios haberinde, ad\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmayan kaynaklar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 48 saat i\u00e7inde anla\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu belirtti.  \n\n<h3>Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki Son Tarih Dalgalanmay\u0131 Art\u0131r\u0131yor<\/h3>  \nBa\u015fkan Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar s\u00fcre verdi ve enerji santralleri ile di\u011fer sivil altyap\u0131ya sald\u0131r\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, ABD ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 altyap\u0131ya misilleme yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 zararlar i\u00e7in tazminat sa\u011flanana kadar bo\u011faz\u0131 kapal\u0131 tutacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.  \n\nEnerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerse ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerini geciktirebilece\u011fi ve y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini (faizleri) art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in politika y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u00e7in FOMC toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurulun ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 notlar\u0131) bekliyor.  \n\n\u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyon verisi, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) \u00fczerinde politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon (y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) %0,3 ile son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fckse\u011fine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve SNB\u2019nin %0\u20132 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretti.  \n\n<h3>\u0130kili Sonuca (Ya Olur Ya Olmaz) Uygun Opsiyon Stratejisi<\/h3>  \nYar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cson tarih\u201d g\u00fcndemi nedeniyle sonu\u00e7 iki u\u00e7lu oldu\u011fundan (anla\u015fma ya da t\u0131rmanma), do\u011frudan y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar riskli. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev piyasalar (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Piyasada oynakl\u0131kta (fiyat\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) s\u0131\u00e7rama bekleniyor; ani bir ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 pariteyi h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilece\u011fi gibi, gerilimin artmas\u0131 da h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f getirebilir. \u201cUzun straddle\u201d stratejisi (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m opsiyonu hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak), fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.  \n\n2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa tepkisine benzer bir tablo olu\u015fabilir. O d\u00f6nemde WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi referans petrol) fiyat\u0131 bir aydan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 dolardan 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, bu da y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini desteklemi\u015fti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve dolar\u0131 benzer, hatta daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyebilir.  \n\nMerkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (biri daha s\u0131k\u0131, di\u011feri daha gev\u015fek \u00e7izgi) USD\/CHF\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekliyor. Veriler, ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %2,8\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de ise enflasyonun %0,3 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da SNB\u2019ye \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d kalmak i\u00e7in alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor (g\u00fcvercin: faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyen yakla\u015f\u0131m). Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7in faiz indirimi beklentisini tamamen d\u0131\u015flad\u0131; baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar petrol y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da fiyatl\u0131yor.  \n\nOpsiyon piyasas\u0131nda USD\/CHF i\u00e7in 1 haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %5\u2019ten %15\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, son tarihe giderken tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Dolar lehine g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe sahip olanlar i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu almak, olas\u0131 t\u0131rmanmada yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar. Mevcut faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizi aras\u0131ndaki makas) da pariteyi destekliyor: Fed politika faizi %4,75, SNB faizi %1,25 seviyesinde.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/CHF \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr y\u00fckseliyor: Orta Do\u011fu belirsizli\u011fi dolar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d yapt\u0131, Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz son tarihi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 patlatt\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalma riski s\u00fcrerken, 1 haftal\u0131k vol %15+; straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43880","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43880\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}