{"id":43859,"date":"2026-04-06T05:18:55","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T05:18:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/faiz-artisi-beklentileri-ve-guclenen-abd-dolari-son-yukselisi-sinirlandirirken-altin-negatif-seyrini-koruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T05:18:55","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T05:18:55","slug":"faiz-artisi-beklentileri-ve-guclenen-abd-dolari-son-yukselisi-sinirlandirirken-altin-negatif-seyrini-koruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/faiz-artisi-beklentileri-ve-guclenen-abd-dolari-son-yukselisi-sinirlandirirken-altin-negatif-seyrini-koruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131, son y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken alt\u0131n negatif seyrini koruyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.550 dolardan toparland\u0131ktan sonra haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu hareket, ABD dolar\u0131na talebin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve k\u00fcresel faizlerin daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle geldi. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi, **faiz getirisi olmayan** (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demeyen) alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde genelde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.\n\nPetrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 sal\u0131ya kadar yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmazsa \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elektrik santralleri ve k\u00f6pr\u00fclerinin hedef al\u0131nabilece\u011fi tehdidinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran ise ge\u00e7i\u015fin, gelirin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 zararlar\u0131n telafisine ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\n<h3>Orta Do\u011fu Arz Riski<\/h3>  \n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeni Dini Lideri Mojtaba Hamaney\u2019in bir dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131, Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da hedef al\u0131nabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, ticaretin aksayabilece\u011fi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, **enflasyon beklentilerini** (gelecekte fiyatlar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.\n\nCuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD **tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam** verisi (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi), i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi beklentisini destekledi. Alt\u0131n, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc dip seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken 4.600 dolar civar\u0131nda destek buldu. Piyasalar, Paskalya Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacmi nedeniyle daha sakin seyrederken ABD ISM **Hizmet PMI** verisini bekledi (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/daralma sinyali verir).\n\nTeknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 4.600 dolar seviyesi, **%38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi** ile uyumlu (Fibonacci: fiyat\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilme seviyelerini \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik ara\u00e7). Fiyat, **200 d\u00f6nem EMA**\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor (EMA: \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verir). **MACD** s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve sinyal \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda (MACD: momentum\/trend g\u00f6stergesi). **RSI** 52 seviyesinde (RSI: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m g\u00f6stergesi). Diren\u00e7ler 4.758, ard\u0131ndan 4.791 ve 4.913 dolar; destekler 4.411 ve 4.300 dolar.\n\nMerkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi; bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor. Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD dolar\u0131 ve ABD **Hazine tahvilleri** ile ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder (tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselince getiriler d\u00fc\u015febilir; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenince alt\u0131n zay\u0131flayabilir). Faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi de alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.\n\n<h3>Alt\u0131nda Makro G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde De\u011fi\u015fim<\/h3>  \nGe\u00e7en y\u0131la d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski alt\u0131n\u0131 zorluyordu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerilim petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 itiyor, Fed\u2019in **\u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na e\u011filimli) duru\u015funu korumak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesini art\u0131r\u0131yordu. Bu ortam 2025\u2019te alt\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alanlar\u0131 desteklemi\u015fti.\n\n6 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in yeni f\u0131rsatlar do\u011fdu. Enflasyonda so\u011fuma i\u015faretleri var. Mart ay\u0131 **T\u00dcFE (CPI)** verisi %3,1 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda geldi ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki zirvelerden geriledi. Bunun sonucunda piyasa beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti; CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %65\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (FedWatch: vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan faiz beklentisi \u00e7\u0131karan g\u00f6sterge).\n\nPara politikas\u0131na dair bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131 ve dolar 2025 zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekildi. Alt\u0131n da do\u011frudan fayda sa\u011flad\u0131; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan 4.750 ve 4.913 dolar diren\u00e7lerinin \u00fczerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fiyatlar \u015fu s\u0131ralar 4.950 dolar \u00e7evresinde yatay-dengeli seyrediyor; piyasalar psikolojik 5.000 dolar seviyesine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda.\n\nT\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu durum, daha **y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc** bir duru\u015fu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Genel e\u011filim yukar\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** sat\u0131n almak veya **bo\u011fa call spreadi** kurmak (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak) y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.\n\n\u0130zlenecek seviyelerde roller de\u011fi\u015fti; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 4.913 dolar civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde art\u0131k olas\u0131 bir destek b\u00f6lgesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Son **CFTC** verilerinde (CFTC: ABD emtia vadeli i\u015flemler d\u00fczenleyicisi; fonlar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 raporlar) para y\u00f6neticilerinin **net uzun** (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flardan fazla olmas\u0131) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. May\u0131s vadeli 5.000 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p 5.100 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmaya dayal\u0131 bir strateji, bu kritik seviyenin a\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle fiyatlaman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar alev alev: Dolar ve faiz beklentisi alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131larken 4.600$ kritik. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/Bab\u00fclmendep gerilimi petrol\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yor. Enflasyon so\u011fuyor; Fed indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor, 5.000$ hedefte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43859\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}