{"id":43853,"date":"2026-04-06T04:19:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T04:19:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/asya-seansinda-aud-jpy-rba-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-ve-yukselis-egiliminin-destegiyle-11020-civarina-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T04:19:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T04:19:21","slug":"asya-seansinda-aud-jpy-rba-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-ve-yukselis-egiliminin-destegiyle-11020-civarina-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/asya-seansinda-aud-jpy-rba-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-ve-yukselis-egiliminin-destegiyle-11020-civarina-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Asya seans\u0131nda AUD\/JPY, RBA faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri ve y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin deste\u011fiyle 110,20 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 110,20\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korudu. 110,00 seviyesi destek, 111,25 seviyesi ise diren\u00e7 olarak izlendi.\n\nHareket, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) politika faizini art\u0131rmaya devam edece\u011fi beklentileriyle ili\u015fkilendirildi; bu beklenti Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 Yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekledi. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha az riskli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc para birimlerine y\u00f6nelmesi) olarak Yen\u2019e talebi art\u0131r\u0131rsa y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilir.\n\n<h3>Orta Do\u011fu Riskleri ve G\u00fcvenli Liman Ak\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h3>\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n merkez askeri komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, sivil hedeflerin vurulmas\u0131 halinde daha \u201cy\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 ve geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131\u201d misillemeler olaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fma yapmamas\u0131 durumunda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elektrik santralleri ve k\u00f6pr\u00fclerini yok edece\u011fi tehdidinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.\n\nG\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte fiyat, y\u00fckselen 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek trendi g\u00f6steren ortalama) 107,35 civar\u0131ndaki seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu da geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin korundu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda momentum g\u00f6stergesi) orta \u00e7izgiye do\u011fru gerileyerek k\u0131sa vadede yatay seyrin (konsolidasyon; belirgin y\u00f6n olmadan dar bantta hareket) m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.\n\nFiyat y\u00fckselirse ilk engel Bollinger Bantlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re geni\u015fleyip daralan bantlar) orta band\u0131 olan 111,25, ard\u0131ndan 112,61 ve 113,65 seviyeleri. Geri \u00e7ekilmelerde izlenecek seviyeler 110,00, 108,75 ve 107,35 civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA.\n\n2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda AUD\/JPY\u2019de 110,00 \u00fczerinde kalan i\u015flemlerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bunun ana nedeni, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentisiydi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk, Yen\u2019i g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilecek jeopolitik gerilimdi.\n\n<h3>Mevcut Makro G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Kritik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n6 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti ve y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu zay\u0131flad\u0131. AUD\/JPY\u2019nin 104,50\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc izleniyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (birinin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, di\u011ferinin gev\u015fek duru\u015f sergilemesi) tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek enflasyonu %3,1 gelerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini (nakit oran; k\u0131sa vadeli temel faiz) \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci toplant\u0131da sabit tutmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cnormalle\u015ftirme\u201d (\u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve geni\u015flemeci ad\u0131mlardan kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) s\u00fcrecini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Mart 2026\u2019da ikinci k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Bu durum, daha \u00f6nce Avustralya Dolar\u0131 lehine olan faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131. Avustralya ve Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 (yield spread; iki \u00fclke tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) art\u0131k %3,6 seviyesinde; 2025 ortas\u0131nda %4,2\u2019nin \u00fczerindeydi.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi veya bant hareketi ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. AUD\/JPY put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) almak, 103,00 destek seviyesine olas\u0131 gerilemelerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir strateji olabilir. \u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) son d\u00f6nemde %11,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu da put spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p satarak maliyeti azaltan strateji) gibi, \u00f6denen primi (opsiyon maliyeti) kontrol etmeye yarayan y\u00f6ntemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kritik seviyeler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Diren\u00e7 art\u0131k 105,50 civar\u0131nda; bu seviye ge\u00e7en y\u0131l destekti. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi i\u00e7in temel risk, emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle demir cevherinde, ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olmas\u0131; bu durum AUD\u2019ye beklenmedik g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131rabilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets\u2019te canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/JPY\u2019de r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc: 2025\u2019te RBA faiz beklentileriyle 110 \u00fczeri g\u00fc\u00e7lenen parite, 2026\u2019da RBA\u2019n\u0131n bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015fu ve BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla 104,50\u2019ye yak\u0131n. Diren\u00e7 105,50, risk jeopolitik\/emtia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43853\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}