{"id":43841,"date":"2026-04-02T10:55:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T10:55:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/elliott-dalga-analizi-qqqnun-63701-dolarda-1-dalgasini-tamamladigini-ve-onceki-dongu-duzeltme-asamasinin-sona-erdigini-gosteriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T10:55:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T10:55:43","slug":"elliott-dalga-analizi-qqqnun-63701-dolarda-1-dalgasini-tamamladigini-ve-onceki-dongu-duzeltme-asamasinin-sona-erdigini-gosteriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/elliott-dalga-analizi-qqqnun-63701-dolarda-1-dalgasini-tamamladigini-ve-onceki-dongu-duzeltme-asamasinin-sona-erdigini-gosteriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Elliott Dalga analizi, QQQ\u2019nun 637,01 dolarda ((1)) dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki d\u00f6ng\u00fc d\u00fczeltme a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n sona erdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor."},"content":{"rendered":"Nasdaq-100 ETF\u2019si (QQQ), 7 Nisan 2025 dip seviyesinden ba\u015flayan ((1)) dalgas\u0131n\u0131n zirvesini 29 Ekim 2025\u2019te 637,01 dolarda yapt\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan ((2)) dalgas\u0131na girerek d\u00fczeltme (k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilme) s\u00fcrecini Elliott Dalga (piyasa hareketlerini \u201cdalga\u201d yap\u0131lar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131ran teknik analiz yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) kapsam\u0131nda \u201cdouble three\u201d (iki par\u00e7al\u0131, birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131k d\u00fczeltme) formasyonuyla olu\u015fturdu.\n\n29 Ekim zirvesinden sonra (W) dalgas\u0131 580,74 dolarda tamamland\u0131 ve (X) dalgas\u0131 636,60 dolara y\u00fckseldi. Daha sonra (Y) dalgas\u0131 555,55 dolara gerileyerek ((2)) dalgas\u0131n\u0131 bitirdi; bu yap\u0131 bir saatlik grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n

Dalga Yap\u0131s\u0131 ve Yak\u0131n Vadeli G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\nQQQ, sonras\u0131nda ((3)) dalgas\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Ancak 637,01 dolar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, olas\u0131 \u201c\u00e7ifte d\u00fczeltme\u201d (d\u00fczeltmenin beklenenden uzun s\u00fcrmesi) riskini tamamen d\u0131\u015flamak i\u00e7in gerekli. 555,55 dolardan itibaren ((i)) dalgas\u0131 564,45 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ((ii)) dalgas\u0131 557,86 dolara indi ve ((iii)) dalgas\u0131 587,74 dolara y\u00fckseldi.\n\n((iv)) dalgas\u0131 582,33 dolara geri \u00e7ekildi. Sonraki ad\u0131mda ((v)) dalgas\u0131yla yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekte (daha \u00fcst zaman diliminde) 1. dalgan\u0131n tamamlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nBunun ard\u0131ndan 2. dalgan\u0131n, 31 Mart dip seviyesinden ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri almas\u0131 (retracement: \u00f6nceki hareketin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri vermesi) ve sonras\u0131nda ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin s\u00fcrmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadede 555,47 dolar \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece geri \u00e7ekilmelerde destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi b\u00f6lge) 3 ya da 7 sal\u0131n\u0131mda (swing: k\u0131sa vadeli ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ad\u0131m\u0131) bulunabilir.\n\n

Opsiyon Konumlanmas\u0131 ve Kritik Seviyeler<\/h3>\nT\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, geri \u00e7ekilmeleri al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmeyi; al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya bo\u011fa call spread (y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosuna g\u00f6re kurulan, iki call opsiyonuyla risk\/kazan\u00e7 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lan strateji) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Beklenen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck d\u00fczeltme olan 2. dalga, bir sonraki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f ba\u015flamadan daha uygun seviyelerden uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan pozisyon) olu\u015fturma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\n\u0130zlenecek kritik seviye 555,47 dolardaki pivot (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n tayininde referans kabul edilen d\u00f6n\u00fcm seviyesi); bu da son \u00f6nemli dip b\u00f6lgesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (\u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan) put credit spread (sat\u0131m opsiyonu \u00fczerinden prim toplamak i\u00e7in kurulan, iki put ile riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji) satmak, prim (opsiyonun bedeli) toplayarak destek b\u00f6lgesinin korunaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden faydalanmak isteyenler i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu taban korunursa a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 y\u00f6n yukar\u0131 kal\u0131r.\n\nAna diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) 29 Ekim 2025 zirvesi olan 637,01 dolarda. Y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin netle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in bu seviyenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu seviyeye do\u011fru ve bu seviyenin \u00fczerine hareketten faydalanacak \u015fekilde debit spread (prim \u00f6deyerek kurulan, riskin ba\u015ftan belli oldu\u011fu spread stratejisi) gibi i\u015flemler kurgulayabilir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u201cimplied volatility\u201d (\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) ortam\u0131nda bu t\u00fcr y\u00f6nl\u00fc spread i\u015flemleri, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla daha cazip olabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

QQQ\u2019da Elliott\u2019a g\u00f6re double three d\u00fczeltme bitti: 555,55\u2019ten ((3)) y\u00fckseli\u015fi ba\u015flad\u0131. 555,47 pivot \u00fcst\u00fcnde geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131. As\u0131l teyit 637,01 direncinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131; opsiyonda spread stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43841\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}