{"id":43802,"date":"2026-04-02T04:56:44","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T04:56:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dbs-ekonomisti-chua-guclu-makroekonomik-kosullar-ve-girislerin-simdiye-kadar-malezya-ringgiti-ile-hisse-senetlerini-destekledigini-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T04:56:44","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T04:56:44","slug":"dbs-ekonomisti-chua-guclu-makroekonomik-kosullar-ve-girislerin-simdiye-kadar-malezya-ringgiti-ile-hisse-senetlerini-destekledigini-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-ekonomisti-chua-guclu-makroekonomik-kosullar-ve-girislerin-simdiye-kadar-malezya-ringgiti-ile-hisse-senetlerini-destekledigini-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS ekonomisti Chua, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makroekonomik ko\u015fullar ve giri\u015flerin \u015fimdiye kadar Malezya ringgiti ile hisse senetlerini destekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"Malezya finansal piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fckseldi; ringgit %0,3, g\u00f6sterge hisse endeksi ise %0,6 artt\u0131. Bu hareketler, k\u00fcresel belirsizlik ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlere ra\u011fmen istikrarl\u0131 makro (genel ekonomi) ko\u015fullar ve sermaye giri\u015fleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131.\n\nBank Negara Malaysia (BNM \u2013 Malezya Merkez Bankas\u0131) 31 Mart\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcncelledi ve 2026 GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %4,0\u2013%5,0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2026 B\u00fct\u00e7esi\u2019ndeki %4,0\u2013%4,5 tahmini ve DBS\u2019nin %4,7 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha geni\u015f bir aral\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Politika Etkileri<\/h3>\nBNM ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyonun (genel enflasyon, t\u00fcm kalemlerin ortalamas\u0131) ortalama %1,5\u2013%2,5 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu, 2026 B\u00fct\u00e7esi\u2019ndeki %1,3\u2013%2,0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve DBS\u2019nin %2,0 tahminiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor; tahmin, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ve i\u00e7 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na (ithalat maliyetleri ve i\u00e7eride talep kaynakl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) dayan\u0131yor.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor. Bu durum, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e tahvil getirilerini (tahvil faizi) yatay tutmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.\n\nDayan\u0131kl\u0131 makro zeminde, Malezya ringgitinin yak\u0131n vadede ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. BNM\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 halinde USD\/MYR opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n gelecekte bekledi\u011fi kur dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015fmesi olas\u0131. Bu, dalgalanma sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131r; \u00f6rne\u011fin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u0131sa strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede, kur mevcut seviyedeyken hem al\u0131m opsiyonu hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu satarak prim toplama; kur belirli bantta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama) kullanarak yatay seyreden bir kurdan prim (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 geliri) toplayabilir.\n\nBu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 Mart 2026 verileri de destekliyor: Man\u015fet enflasyon %1,8\u2019de sabit kalarak BNM tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Malezya ihracat\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re) %4,2 artt\u0131; art\u0131\u015fa elektronik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki toparlanma \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. Bu veriler, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede politika duru\u015funu (faiz ve di\u011fer ad\u0131mlar\u0131n genel y\u00f6n\u00fc) de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in acil bir neden olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n<h3>Faiz Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Getiri E\u011frisi \u0130stikrar\u0131<\/h3>\nFaiz t\u00fcrevlerinde (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) politika faizinin \u201c\u00e7apal\u0131\u201d olmas\u0131, MGS (Malaysian Government Securities \u2013 Malezya Devlet Tahvilleri) getirilerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket anlam\u0131na gelir. Getiri e\u011frisinin (vadeye g\u00f6re faizlerin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da faizde tek y\u00f6ne bahis (faiz kesin d\u00fc\u015fer\/\u00e7\u0131kar beklentisiyle pozisyon) i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir ortam de\u011fildir. Bunun yerine swaption (faiz swap\u0131 yapma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; yani gelecekte sabit\/de\u011fi\u015fken faiz takas\u0131 ba\u015flatma hakk\u0131) satmak veya faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapan benzer i\u015flemler, gelir \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nYine de d\u0131\u015f riskleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir: 2025\u2019te ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika sinyalleri, geli\u015fen piyasalardan (y\u00fckselen ekonomiler) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak piyasay\u0131 dalgaland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Malezya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan beklenmedik \u015fahinlik (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika, daha y\u00fcksek faiz mesaj\u0131) mevcut istikrar\u0131 bozabilir. Bu nedenle t\u00fcm k\u0131sa oynakl\u0131k (dalgalanma sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) pozisyonlar\u0131, net ve disiplinli risk kurallar\u0131yla y\u00f6netilmelidir.\n\nHisse t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda, istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir zemin sunuyor. G\u00f6sterge FBM KLCI endeksinin y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stermesiyle, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyel olsa da bunun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lmak ve azami riskini ba\u015ftan belirlemek i\u00e7in endekste call spread (al\u0131m opsiyon spread\u2019i: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve k\u00e2r\/zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeopolitik sis da\u011f\u0131lmasa da Malezya parl\u0131yor: ringgit %0,3, FBM KLCI %0,6 artt\u0131. BNM 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %4-5, enflasyonu %1,5-2,5 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; faiz sabit, oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43802"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43802\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}