{"id":43797,"date":"2026-04-02T03:58:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T03:58:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-asya-buyumeyi-zayiflatip-enflasyonu-yukselten-petrol-ve-stok-soklariyla-karsi-karsiya-krw-inr-riski-faiz-artislari-sinirli\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T03:58:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T03:58:08","slug":"td-securities-asya-buyumeyi-zayiflatip-enflasyonu-yukselten-petrol-ve-stok-soklariyla-karsi-karsiya-krw-inr-riski-faiz-artislari-sinirli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-asya-buyumeyi-zayiflatip-enflasyonu-yukselten-petrol-ve-stok-soklariyla-karsi-karsiya-krw-inr-riski-faiz-artislari-sinirli\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities: Asya, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flat\u0131p enflasyonu y\u00fckselten petrol ve stok \u015foklar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; KRW\/INR riski; faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fen stok tamponlar\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 elde tutulan yedek stoklar) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ithal enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Asya ekonomilerini etkiledi\u011fini bildirdi. Kuruma g\u00f6re bu durum, b\u00f6lgede b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp enflasyonu y\u00fckseltebilir.\n\nNotta, GSYH\u2019de (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la; \u00fclkenin toplam ekonomik \u00fcretimi) en az yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,0\u2019lik bir darbe \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve G\u00fcney Kore ile Tayland gibi enerji yo\u011fun (enerjiye \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131) ekonomilerde resesyon (ekonomik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme) riski vurguland\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Asya\u2019daki merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeye odaklanabilece\u011fi, bu nedenle enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi belirtildi.\n\n<h3>Asya Piyasalar\u0131 ve Para Birimi Etkileri<\/h3>\nTD Securities, Asya para birimleri ve hisse senetlerinin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti\u011fini; G\u00fcney Kore wonu (KRW) ve Hindistan rupisinin (INR) benzerlerine g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bunu, enerji kaynakl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u015fokuna (enerji ithalat maliyetinin artmas\u0131yla \u00fclke gelir-gider dengesinin bozulmas\u0131), dolar (USD) pozisyonlar\u0131nda d\u00fczeltmeye (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolar y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemleri azalt\u0131p yeniden dengelemesi), daha h\u0131zl\u0131 portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n sermaye \u00e7ekmesi) ve faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alana ba\u011flad\u0131.\n\nNotta, Singapur dolar\u0131 (SGD) ve \u00c7in yuan\u0131n\u0131n (CNY) daha iyi dayanabilece\u011fi belirtildi; gerek\u00e7e olarak d\u00f6viz politikalar\u0131, rezervler (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz birikimi) ve tahvil giri\u015fleri (tahvil piyasas\u0131na yabanc\u0131 para giri\u015fi) g\u00f6sterildi. Yak\u0131n vadede dolar \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d ta\u015f\u0131maya (dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon almak) y\u00f6nelik temkinli bir tercihin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011fu da ifade edildi.\n\nABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 savunmac\u0131 e\u011filim, mevcut tablonun 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u201cy\u00fcksek enerji fiyat\u0131 + yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d ikili \u015fokuna benzemesi nedeniyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecek tarihte teslim edilmek \u00fczere yap\u0131lan petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, Asya\u2019daki enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkeler \u00fczerindeki bilindik bask\u0131 yeniden art\u0131yor. Bu zemin, daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u00f6lge para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 koruma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nG\u00fcney Kore wonu belirgin zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyali veriyor. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin son enflasyon verisi %3,4 gelse de Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zedelememek i\u00e7in faizi sabit tutuyor; bu da negatif reel getiri (faizin enflasyonun alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc kayb\u0131) ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu duru\u015fun, \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n) ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, KRW\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin KRW vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir) ile.\n\n<h3>Dolar G\u00fcc\u00fcne Y\u00f6nelik \u0130\u015flem Fikirleri<\/h3>\nBenzer bask\u0131 Hindistan rupisinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; rupi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 83,50 seviyesinin alt\u0131na de\u011fer kaybetti. Hindistan\u2019da enflasyon %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalsa da merkez bankas\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceliklendirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131f. Bu tablo rupiyi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa daha a\u00e7\u0131k k\u0131l\u0131yor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USD\/INR al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir) alarak olas\u0131 ek de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Singapur dolar\u0131 ve \u00c7in yuan\u0131, proaktif politika ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6viz rezerv tamponlar\u0131 sayesinde daha diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Singapur Para Otoritesi\u2019nin (merkez bankas\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren kurum) istikrarl\u0131 politika \u00e7izgisi SGD\u2019yi desteklerken, kamu y\u00f6nlendirmeli giri\u015fler (devlet etkisiyle sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) CNY\u2019nin istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Bu para birimlerinin b\u00f6lgedeki benzerlerine g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi beklenir; ancak genel dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 tamamen ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131k de\u011filler.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu ortam, \u00f6zellikle won ve rupi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolardan faydalanan i\u015flemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir d\u00f6viz sepeti (birden fazla para biriminden olu\u015fan pozisyon) kurgulanarak USD\u2019de uzun, KRW ve INR\u2019de e\u015fit a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) al\u0131nabilir. Alternatif olarak g\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemleri (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birbirine g\u00f6re performans\u0131na oynayan strateji) ile, \u00f6rne\u011fin SGD\/KRW\u2019de SGD uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak, b\u00f6lgesel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken genel piyasa riskinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 dengeleyebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde: TD Securities, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskinin Asya\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ~%1 t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyip enflasyonu art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, KRW\/INR\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve dolar uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43797"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43797\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}