{"id":43796,"date":"2026-04-02T03:57:22","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T03:57:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-asya-artan-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-azalan-stoklarla-karsi-karsiya-buyume-zayifliyor-enflasyon-yukseliyor-krw-inr-kirilgan\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T03:57:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T03:57:22","slug":"td-securities-asya-artan-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-azalan-stoklarla-karsi-karsiya-buyume-zayifliyor-enflasyon-yukseliyor-krw-inr-kirilgan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-asya-artan-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-azalan-stoklarla-karsi-karsiya-buyume-zayifliyor-enflasyon-yukseliyor-krw-inr-kirilgan\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities: Asya artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve azalan stoklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, enflasyon y\u00fckseliyor; KRW\/INR k\u0131r\u0131lgan"},"content":{"rendered":"Asya, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 eriyen stok tamponlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan iki \u015fokla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. B\u00f6lge, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ta\u015f\u0131nan ithal enerjiye b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Bu durum, arz kesintilerine ve fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nBu iki etki, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi GSYH\u2019nin (bir \u00fclkenin toplam ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) en az yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,0\u2019u kadar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken enflasyonu (fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131) yukar\u0131 itebilir. G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayland gibi enerjiyi yo\u011fun kullanan ekonomilerde resesyon (ekonominin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi) riski var.\n\n<h3>Merkez Bankalar\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye Odaklan\u0131yor<\/h3>\nAsya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceliklendirmesi ve enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen faiz art\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu duru\u015f, k\u0131sa vadede Asya d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ve hisse senetleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nKore wonu (KRW) ve Hindistan rupisinin (INR) b\u00f6lgedeki benzer para birimlerine g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Nedenler aras\u0131nda enerji kaynakl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u015foku (ithalat maliyeti artarken ihracat gelirinin g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131), ABD dolar\u0131nda pozisyon d\u00fczeltmesi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolar al\u0131m-sat\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi), h\u0131zlanan portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n hisse ve tahvil sat\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131) ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 faiz art\u0131rma iste\u011fi bulunuyor.\n\nSingapur dolar\u0131 (SGD) ve \u00c7in yuan\u0131n\u0131n (CNY) daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, d\u00f6viz kuru y\u00f6netimi (kurun tamamen serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmay\u0131p politika ile y\u00f6nlendirilmesi), g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rezervler (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz birikimi) ve tahvil piyasas\u0131na giri\u015fler destekliyor. Buna ek olarak, k\u0131sa vadede savunmac\u0131 \u201cdolar uzun\u201d e\u011filimi (dolar pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131maya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nBrent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, mevcut enerji krizi Asya i\u00e7in sert bir \u201c\u00e7ifte \u015fok\u201d yarat\u0131yor. B\u00f6lgesel stok tamponlar\u0131 h\u0131zla azal\u0131yor; OECD\u2019nin (geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler grubu) ticari petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n, 2022\u2019deki enerji \u015fokundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere indi\u011fi bildirildi. Bu durum, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan ekonomileri orant\u0131s\u0131z bi\u00e7imde daha fazla etkiliyor.\n\n<h3>D\u00f6vizde Kazananlar ve Kaybedenler<\/h3>\nBu tablo, y\u00fckselen enflasyonla birlikte belirgin bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. IMF (Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu), geli\u015fen Asya i\u00e7in 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %5,1\u2019den %4,3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. G\u00fcney Kore gibi enerji yo\u011fun ekonomilerde (ge\u00e7en ay T\u00dcFE \u2014 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi \u2014 %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131) ve Tayland\u2019da resesyon riski g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00f6lgesel GSYH\u2019ye beklenen darbe en az %1,0.\n\nAsya merkez bankalar\u0131 zor bir dengeyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmeleri beklenmiyor; fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaktan \u00e7ok daha sert bir ekonomik yava\u015flamay\u0131 \u00f6nlemeye \u00f6ncelik verebilirler. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde belirleyici.\n\nD\u0131\u015f ticaret \u015foku ve h\u0131zlanan portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Kore wonu ve Hindistan rupisinde zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/KRW paritesi 1450 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131; bu, 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00f6rece sakin seyre k\u0131yasla belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. USD\/INR 85,00 e\u015fi\u011fini test ederken, INR\u2019de ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik opsiyon stratejileri (kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta\/pozisyon alma ama\u00e7l\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Singapur dolar\u0131 ve \u00c7in yuan\u0131, y\u00f6netilen kur politikas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rezervler sayesinde g\u00f6rece daha diren\u00e7li. \u00c7in devlet tahvillerine s\u00fcren yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fleri yuan i\u00e7in taban (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan destek) olu\u015fturuyor. Yak\u0131n vadede i\u015flem stratejilerinde savunmac\u0131 dolar pozisyonu a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol 115 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131: Asya, y\u00fckselen fiyatlar ve eriyen stoklarla \u201c\u00e7ifte \u015fok\u201dta. B\u00fcy\u00fcme en az %1 darbe, enflasyon yukar\u0131. KRW\/INR zay\u0131f; SGD\/CNY diren\u00e7li, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43796\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}