{"id":43721,"date":"2026-03-04T07:12:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T07:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-catismasi-likidite-rejimi-degisimini-hizlandiriyor-mu-vt-markets\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T07:12:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T07:12:00","slug":"abd-iran-catismasi-likidite-rejimi-degisimini-hizlandiriyor-mu-vt-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/featured\/abd-iran-catismasi-likidite-rejimi-degisimini-hizlandiriyor-mu-vt-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Likidite Rejimi De\u011fi\u015fimini H\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor mu? | VT Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/05\/justin_khoo_banner_mobile-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25584\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kan Noktalar:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011finde Fed\u2019de olas\u0131 bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi, piyasay\u0131 hemen desteklemek yerine likiditeye (piyasadaki para ve kredi ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) daha ge\u00e7 m\u00fcdahaleyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi; petrol \u015foklar\u0131, dolara y\u00f6nelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar (krediye eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131, faizlerin\/finansman maliyetinin artmas\u0131) \u00fczerinden likidite d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>K\u0131sa vadede bu tablo, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ve Bitcoin dahil riskli varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131ya i\u015faret eder.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Orta\u2013uzun vadede jeopolitik stres ve b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, yeniden para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015femeyi (faiz indirimi ve\/veya piyasaya para verme) daha olas\u0131 k\u0131lar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ana konu, likiditenin geri d\u00f6n\u00fcp d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fi de\u011fil; ne zaman ve nas\u0131l d\u00f6nece\u011fidir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Parasal Tart\u0131\u015fma Jeopolitik \u015eokla Bulu\u015fuyor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, ABD Senatosu onay\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131 Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na aday g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD para politikas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcne ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar h\u0131z kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Obstacles are mounting for Kevin Warsh to deliver the drastic rate cuts President Donald Trump wants if he becomes the next chair of the Federal Reserve <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jKt7wcUtln\">https:\/\/t.co\/jKt7wcUtln<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2028948301689573479?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 3, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Onay s\u00fcreci s\u00fcrerken piyasalar beklentilerini \u015fimdiden g\u00fcncelliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu tart\u0131\u015fma art\u0131k tek ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fcyor. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/i1zkxM4eq2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin y\u00fckselmesi<\/a>, k\u0131r\u0131lgan makro ortam\u0131 (b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon-faiz dengesi) jeopolitik riskle daha da zorluyor. Soru art\u0131k sadece \u201cyeni bir para politikas\u0131 d\u00f6nemi mi ba\u015fl\u0131yor?\u201d de\u011fil; d\u0131\u015f \u015foklar\u0131n bu s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131p h\u0131zland\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Temel mesele, likiditenin geri d\u00f6n\u00fcp d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fi de\u011fil; zamanlama, \u00f6l\u00e7ek ve uygulama bi\u00e7imi. Jeopolitik oynakl\u0131k bu s\u00fcreleri k\u0131saltabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Para Politikas\u0131nda Yakla\u015f\u0131m De\u011fi\u015fimi<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Kevin Warsh, 2006\u20132011 d\u00f6neminde Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesiydi; bu da onu K\u00fcresel Finans Krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda kararlar\u0131n merkezine yerle\u015ftirdi. Kurumdan ayr\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra, finansal piyasalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 deste\u011fine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale geldi\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ona g\u00f6re likiditeyi \u00e7ok erken vermek, varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i \u015fekilde yeniden olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (yeniden fiyatlama) engeller ve \u201cnas\u0131l olsa kurtarma gelir\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 risk al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Warsh, faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine kategorik olarak kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil. Y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk ve konuta eri\u015fim zorlu\u011funun (konut fiyat\u0131\/gelir dengesizli\u011fi) daha destekleyici politikalara ihtiya\u00e7 do\u011furabilece\u011fini kabul ediyor. Kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fey, s\u00fcrekli bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fctme: Her d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 ve likidite pencereleriyle piyasay\u0131 an\u0131nda yumu\u015fatma anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Jerome Powell d\u00f6neminde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u201coynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bast\u0131rmak ve piyasay\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 likidite verme\u201d \u00e7izgisinden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ki yakla\u015f\u0131m da sonunda likiditeyi art\u0131rabilir. Fark, \u201cac\u0131\u201dn\u0131n nas\u0131l da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Biri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri erken a\u015famada yumu\u015fat\u0131r, kademeli destek verir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Di\u011feri stresi bir s\u00fcre tolere eder, yeniden fiyatlamaya izin verir ve ancak sistemik risk (finans sisteminin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131 riski) ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahale eder.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu fark; d\u00f6viz, tahvil, hisse ve dijital varl\u0131klar\u0131n seyrini do\u011frudan etkiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ABD\u2013\u0130ran Gerilimi Denklemde Nerede?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeopolitik t\u0131rmanma, \u00f6zellikle enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131 veya do\u011frudan askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskiyle, piyasalar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 kanaldan h\u0131zl\u0131 etkiler:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Petrol fiyat\u0131nda sert dalgalanma<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ABD dolar\u0131na \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fta dolara y\u00f6neli\u015f)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>K\u00fcresel finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 (kredi kanallar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, fonlaman\u0131n pahalanmas\u0131)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin y\u00fckselmesi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da arz kesintisi riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr ve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/oil-etf-guide-how-to-trade-etf-crude-oil-like-a-pro\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131<\/a> yukar\u0131 itebilir. Enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00fckseltir; merkez bankalar\u0131 enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken (dezenflasyon: enflasyonun h\u0131z kesmesi) bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 zorla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu da bir politika ikilemi yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131 enflasyonu h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rsa, likiditeyi k\u0131san bir duru\u015fu savunmak zorla\u015f\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k piyasalar sert tepki verirse, \u00f6zellikle kredi piyasas\u0131nda veya geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde, m\u00fcdahale bask\u0131s\u0131 artar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta jeopolitik stres, \u201cac\u0131ya katlan\u201d stratejisinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilece\u011fi s\u00fcreyi k\u0131salt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ABD Dolar\u0131, Bitcoin ve De\u011ferli Metaller i\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ABD Dolar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde k\u00fcresel sermaye g\u00fcvenlik ve nakde eri\u015fim arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar genelde de\u011fer kazan\u0131r. Warsh tarz\u0131 \u201chemen te\u015fvik yok\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede dolardaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 dalga finans sisteminin i\u015fleyi\u015fini tehdit ederse, likidite pencereleri (Fed\u2019in piyasaya k\u0131sa vadeli fon sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanallar) h\u0131zla geni\u015fletilebilir. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahale yeniden devreye girerse, uzun vadede paran\u0131n al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 (enflasyonla erime) tekrar ana tema olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?utm_source=Learn\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">DXY quote<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;on VT, by TradingView<\/span><\/div>  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-symbol-overview.js\" async>  {  \"lineWidth\": 2,  \"lineType\": 0,  \"chartType\": \"area\",  \"fontColor\": \"rgb(106, 109, 120)\",  \"gridLineColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.06)\",  \"volumeUpColor\": \"rgba(34, 171, 148, 0.5)\",  \"volumeDownColor\": \"rgba(247, 82, 95, 0.5)\",  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",  \"widgetFontColor\": \"#DBDBDB\",  \"upColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"downColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"borderUpColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"borderDownColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"wickUpColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"wickDownColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"colorTheme\": \"dark\",  \"isTransparent\": false,  \"locale\": \"en\",  \"chartOnly\": false,  \"scalePosition\": \"right\",  \"scaleMode\": \"Normal\",  \"fontFamily\": \"-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Trebuchet MS, Roboto, Ubuntu, sans-serif\",  \"valuesTracking\": \"1\",  \"changeMode\": \"price-and-percent\",  \"symbols\": [    [      \"TVC:DXY|1D\"    ]  ],  \"dateRanges\": [    \"1d|1\",    \"1m|30\",    \"3m|60\",    \"12m|1D\",    \"60m|1W\",    \"all|1M\"  ],  \"fontSize\": \"10\",  \"headerFontSize\": \"medium\",  \"autosize\": true,  \"width\": \"100%\",  \"height\": \"100%\",  \"noTimeScale\": false,  \"hideDateRanges\": false,  \"hideMarketStatus\": false,  \"hideSymbolLogo\": false}  <\/script><\/div><!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/btcusd-and-altcoins-everything-you-need-to-know\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Bitcoin ve Kripto Varl\u0131klar<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Likiditeye duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klar, \u00f6zellikle Bitcoin, para politikas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimlerden daha fazla etkilenir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Likiditenin bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde geciktirilmesi, k\u0131sa vadede spek\u00fclatif (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat beklentisine dayal\u0131) pozisyonlar\u0131 bask\u0131lar. Marjinal likidite (piyasaya en son giren ek para) \u00e7ekildi\u011finde kripto piyasas\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak jeopolitik gerginlik ani bir m\u00fcdahaleyi zorunlu k\u0131larsa; \u00f6zellikle repo kanallar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesi veya bilan\u00e7o ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131\/likidite yaratma ad\u0131mlar\u0131) devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131yla riskli varl\u0131klarda toparlanma h\u0131zl\u0131 olabilir. Y\u00f6n uzun vadede mutlaka daha negatif olmayabilir; fakat dalgalanma artar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kritik fark s\u0131ralama: \u00f6nce ac\u0131, sonra likidite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Benzer dinamikler alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi de\u011ferli metaller i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erlidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?utm_source=Learn\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Bitcoin price<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;on VT, by TradingView<\/span><\/div>  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-symbol-overview.js\" async>  {  \"lineWidth\": 2,  \"lineType\": 0,  \"chartType\": \"area\",  \"fontColor\": \"rgb(106, 109, 120)\",  \"gridLineColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.06)\",  \"volumeUpColor\": \"rgba(34, 171, 148, 0.5)\",  \"volumeDownColor\": \"rgba(247, 82, 95, 0.5)\",  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",  \"widgetFontColor\": \"#DBDBDB\",  \"upColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"downColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"borderUpColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"borderDownColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"wickUpColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"wickDownColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"colorTheme\": \"dark\",  \"isTransparent\": false,  \"locale\": \"en\",  \"chartOnly\": false,  \"scalePosition\": \"right\",  \"scaleMode\": \"Normal\",  \"fontFamily\": \"-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Trebuchet MS, Roboto, Ubuntu, sans-serif\",  \"valuesTracking\": \"1\",  \"changeMode\": \"price-and-percent\",  \"symbols\": [    [      \"CRYPTO:BTCUSD|1D\"    ]  ],  \"dateRanges\": [    \"1d|1\",    \"1m|30\",    \"3m|60\",    \"12m|1D\",    \"60m|1W\",    \"all|1M\"  ],  \"fontSize\": \"10\",  \"headerFontSize\": \"medium\",  \"autosize\": true,  \"width\": \"100%\",  \"height\": \"100%\",  \"noTimeScale\": false,  \"hideDateRanges\": false,  \"hideMarketStatus\": false,  \"hideSymbolLogo\": false}  <\/script><\/div><!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/the-ultimate-guide-to-gold-investing-stocks-futures-and-strategies-that-stand-the-test-of-time\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Alt\u0131n ve G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte \u201cne zaman\u201d sorusu, \u201csonunda olacak m\u0131\u201d sorusundan daha az \u00f6nemlidir. Likidite erken ya da ge\u00e7 verilsin; kal\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, artan savunma harcamalar\u0131 ve jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 blokla\u015fma) sonunda finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uzayan bir ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 senaryosunda savunma harcamas\u0131 artar, b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi daha da bozulur ve gelecekte para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckselir. De\u011ferli metaller bunu genelde \u00f6nceden fiyatlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?utm_source=Learn\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Gold &#038; Silver<\/span><\/a>on VT, by TradingView<\/div>  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-symbol-overview.js\" async>  {  \"lineWidth\": 2,  \"lineType\": 0,  \"chartType\": \"area\",  \"fontColor\": \"rgb(106, 109, 120)\",  \"gridLineColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.06)\",  \"volumeUpColor\": \"rgba(34, 171, 148, 0.5)\",  \"volumeDownColor\": \"rgba(247, 82, 95, 0.5)\",  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",  \"widgetFontColor\": \"#DBDBDB\",  \"upColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"downColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"borderUpColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"borderDownColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"wickUpColor\": \"#22ab94\",  \"wickDownColor\": \"#f7525f\",  \"colorTheme\": \"dark\",  \"isTransparent\": false,  \"locale\": \"en\",  \"chartOnly\": false,  \"scalePosition\": \"right\",  \"scaleMode\": \"Normal\",  \"fontFamily\": \"-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Trebuchet MS, Roboto, Ubuntu, sans-serif\",  \"valuesTracking\": \"1\",  \"changeMode\": \"price-and-percent\",  \"symbols\": [    [      \"TVC:GOLD|1D\"    ],    [      \"TVC:SILVER|1D\"    ]  ],  \"dateRanges\": [    \"1d|1\",    \"1m|30\",    \"3m|60\",    \"12m|1D\",    \"60m|1W\",    \"all|1M\"  ],  \"fontSize\": \"10\",  \"headerFontSize\": \"medium\",  \"autosize\": true,  \"width\": \"100%\",  \"height\": \"100%\",  \"noTimeScale\": false,  \"hideDateRanges\": false,  \"hideMarketStatus\": false,  \"hideSymbolLogo\": false}  <\/script><\/div><!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Warsh Liderli\u011finde \u00c7er\u00e7eve Muhtemelen Neyi \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131r?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Warsh etkisindeki bir Fed\u2019de vurgu, kal\u0131c\u0131 parasal geni\u015flemeden (niceliksel gev\u015feme: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n tahvil alarak piyasaya para vermesi) uzakla\u015f\u0131p bilan\u00e7oyu \u015fi\u015firmeden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ara\u00e7lara kayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Standing Repo Facility (S\u00fcrekli Repo \u0130mk\u00e2n\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Repo, bankalar\u0131n kaliteli teminat (y\u00fcksek g\u00fcvenilir tahvil gibi) vererek \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131d\u0131r. S\u00fcrekli tahvil almak yerine bankalar, ihtiya\u00e7 olduk\u00e7a gecelik fonlama kullan\u0131r. Likidite \u201cacil oksijen\u201d gibi olur: var, ama piyasay\u0131 s\u00fcrekli para ile doldurmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, 2008 krizinden sonra getirilen Supplementary Leverage Ratio\u2019ya (SLR: bankalar\u0131n toplam bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 belirli d\u00fczeyde sermaye tutma zorunlulu\u011fu) daha \u00e7ok dayan\u0131r. Stres d\u00f6nemlerinde SLR\u2019nin gev\u015fetilmesi, bankalar\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmesine imk\u00e2n vererek merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hemen varl\u0131k almas\u0131na gerek b\u0131rakmayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Teoride bu, piyasa disiplinini korurken sistemin \u00e7\u00f6kmesini \u00f6nler. Ancak jeopolitik \u015foklar, \u201cne kadar stres tolere edilir\u201d e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Likidite D\u00fczeni De\u011fi\u015fimi H\u0131zlan\u0131yor mu?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Olas\u0131 d\u00fczen de\u011fi\u015fimi, likiditenin geri d\u00f6n\u00fcp d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fiyle ilgili de\u011fil. Soru, m\u00fcdahaleden \u00f6nce oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 temizlemesine izin verilip verilmeyece\u011fi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi, stresin planlanandan daha erken gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rarsa, enflasyon faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Piyasalar sert d\u00fc\u015ferse, finansal istikrar riski b\u00fcy\u00fcr. Savunma harcamalar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rsa, zamanla para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme ihtiyac\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu nedenle jeopolitik t\u0131rmanma bir kataliz\u00f6r g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcr: yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmese de uygulamay\u0131 erkene \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Paradoks \u015fu: Disiplini savunan bir y\u00f6netici, d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131n zorlamas\u0131yla daha sert m\u00fcdahalelerin de ba\u015f\u0131nda kalabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2026 i\u00e7in Olas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>2026\u2019ya bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iki a\u015famal\u0131 bir senaryo \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; ancak ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi her a\u015faman\u0131n s\u00fcresini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Birinci A\u015fama: Likidite Disiplini<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Kevin Warsh bu \u00e7izgiyi izlerse, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda likidite k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. Niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (QT: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi, piyasadan para \u00e7ekmesi) veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 m\u00fcdahale dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir, ihracat\u0131 zorlar ve riskli varl\u0131klarda y\u0131l ortas\u0131na do\u011fru bir d\u00fczeltmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7ramalar veya savunma kaynakl\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e geni\u015flemesi gibi jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler bu a\u015famay\u0131 k\u0131saltabilir. Artan enerji maliyetleri enflasyon dengesini bozar, dalgalanma ise daha erken m\u00fcdahaleye zorlayabilir. Yani ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmeyebilir; fakat disiplinin deste\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc noktay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0130kinci A\u015fama: Likidite ve Me\u015fruiyet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130kinci a\u015famada likidite geri gelir; repo kanallar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesiyle veya piyasada k\u0131r\u0131lma ba\u015flarsa daha kapsaml\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda merkez bankas\u0131 dijital para (CBDC: devletin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 dijital para) \u00e7er\u00e7evelerinin reddi ve Bitcoin\u2019in resmen tan\u0131nmas\u0131, kriptoyu <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/learn\/the-hidden-crypto-signal-in-q4-earnings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">yeniden konumland\u0131rarak<\/a> sadece spek\u00fclasyon arac\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p stratejik varl\u0131k gibi g\u00f6sterebilir. Bu tabloda Bitcoin, yaln\u0131zca bol likiditeden de\u011fil; jeopolitik par\u00e7alanman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyada kurumsal kabulden de destek bulur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sonu\u00e7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sonu\u00e7, ideolojiden \u00e7ok uygulamaya ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir senaryoda Trump, i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ve yap\u0131sal reformu \u00f6ne al\u0131p piyasadaki ac\u0131ya katlanabilir. Di\u011fer senaryoda Warsh g\u00fcven verir, faiz indirimleri gelir ve piyasalar jeopolitik bask\u0131yla bozulursa agresif m\u00fcdahale geri d\u00f6ner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Her iki senaryoda da ortak nokta \u015fu: K\u0131sa vadeli likidite disiplini dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve Bitcoin\u2019i bask\u0131layabilir. Ancak jeopolitik gerilim b\u00fct\u00e7e geni\u015flemesini ve finansal istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rsa, likiditenin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklenenden erken gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yol dalgal\u0131 olabilir; ancak yeniden parasal geni\u015fleme (piyasaya daha fazla para ve kredi ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) ihtimalinden ka\u00e7mak zor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S\u0131k Sorulan Sorular (SSS)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1) ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi k\u00fcresel likiditeyi nas\u0131l etkiler?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131; petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak ve dolara talebi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek k\u00fcresel likiditeyi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Enerji arz\u0131 bozulursa veya savunma harcamalar\u0131 artarsa b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcr; bu da ileride para politikas\u0131nda geni\u015fleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6zetle jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ilk etapta likiditeyi azaltabilir; zaman i\u00e7inde ise parasal deste\u011fin daha erken geri d\u00f6nmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2) Likidite rejimi de\u011fi\u015fimi nedir?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Likidite rejimi de\u011fi\u015fimi, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para arz\u0131n\u0131 (dola\u015f\u0131mdaki para ve kredi miktar\u0131) ve finansal stresi y\u00f6netme bi\u00e7iminde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fim anlam\u0131na gelir. Mevcut d\u00fczende Fed, piyasalar\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in \u00e7o\u011fu zaman likiditeyi erken veriyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rejim de\u011fi\u015fimi, \u00f6nce oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tolere etmeyi, varl\u0131klar\u0131n yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131na izin vermeyi ve ancak sistemik risk ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale etmeyi ifade eder. Fark, zamanlamadad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3) Kevin Warsh Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 neden de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Kevin Warsh, piyasalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 deste\u011fine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale geldi\u011fini savunuyor. Onun \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, s\u00fcrekli niceliksel gev\u015femeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131p repo gibi acil fonlama ara\u00e7lar\u0131na daha fazla yaslanmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Onaylan\u0131rsa, politika ilk etapta daha disiplinli olabilir ve bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi azalt\u0131labilir; ancak sistemik stres artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yine y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4) ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir mi?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik gerilim, g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na talebi art\u0131r\u0131r. Dolar, ana rezerv para (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n tuttu\u011fu temel para) ve k\u00fcresel ticarette yayg\u0131n fonlama para birimi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in belirsizlikte genelde g\u00fc\u00e7lenir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma uzarsa, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir ve para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme gerekebilir; bu da uzun vadede al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc kayb\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5) Likidite rejimi de\u011fi\u015fiminde Bitcoin nas\u0131l tepki verir?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin, k\u00fcresel likiditeye \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Likidite k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131nda, spek\u00fclatif para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Bitcoin k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Piyasa stresi para politikas\u0131nda yeniden geni\u015flemeye zorlarsa, Bitcoin artan likiditeden ve \u201ck\u0131t varl\u0131k\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131ndan destek bulabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma da Bitcoin\u2019in yaln\u0131zca spek\u00fclasyonun \u00f6tesinde \u201cstratejik\u201d \u00f6nemini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6) Sava\u015f para basmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sava\u015f tek ba\u015f\u0131na otomatik olarak para bas\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatmaz. Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r, bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltir ve finansal istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr. Piyasalar artan bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yamazsa, merkez bankalar\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in sonunda devreye girebilir.<\/p>\n\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed\u2019de Warsh ihtimali ve ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi piyasada \u201clikidite ne zaman, nas\u0131l gelecek?\u201d sorusunu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor: k\u0131sa vadede dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, Bitcoin\/riskli varl\u0131klar bask\u0131lan\u0131r; orta-uzunda gev\u015feme ihtimali artar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":43720,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-learn"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43721"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43721\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43720"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}