{"id":43679,"date":"2026-03-31T02:03:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T02:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/mufg-analisti-lloyd-chan-abd-iran-geriliminin-uzamasi-halinde-enerji-altyapisinin-tehdit-altina-girecegini-ve-bu-durumun-bolge-genelinde-asya-para-birimlerini-zayiflatacagini-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T02:03:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T02:03:15","slug":"mufg-analisti-lloyd-chan-abd-iran-geriliminin-uzamasi-halinde-enerji-altyapisinin-tehdit-altina-girecegini-ve-bu-durumun-bolge-genelinde-asya-para-birimlerini-zayiflatacagini-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mufg-analisti-lloyd-chan-abd-iran-geriliminin-uzamasi-halinde-enerji-altyapisinin-tehdit-altina-girecegini-ve-bu-durumun-bolge-genelinde-asya-para-birimlerini-zayiflatacagini-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG analisti Lloyd Chan, ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin uzamas\u0131 halinde enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tehdit alt\u0131na girece\u011fini ve bu durumun b\u00f6lge genelinde Asya para birimlerini zay\u0131flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin uzamas\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zarar g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi ihtimali, Asya para birimleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 ek maliyet (risk primi: belirsizlik art\u0131nca fiyatlara eklenen ek \u00f6deme) y\u00fckselirken, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131) d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 genel olarak zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.\n\nY\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa sahip (high-beta: piyasa hareketlerine daha sert tepki veren), petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimleri olan INR, PHP, KRW ve THB en k\u0131r\u0131lgan grup olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, petrol fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k (\u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demeler dengesinde a\u00e7\u0131k vermesi) \u00fczerinden bu \u00fclkelere ta\u015f\u0131yabiliyor.\n\n<h3>Asya Para Birimleri \u0130\u00e7in Artan Enerji Riskleri<\/h3>\nPetrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde bu para birimlerinin zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Enerjiye ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu grupta yeni sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturabiliyor.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskinin uzamas\u0131 CNY, SGD ve MYR \u00fczerinde de bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum, enerji arz\u0131nda kesinti ihtimali ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyat risklerine y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilim s\u00fcrerken enerji risk primi belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseliyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131; fiyat k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak arz kesintisi endi\u015fesini yans\u0131tt\u0131. Bu tablo, petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Asya para birimlerini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem Etkileri Ve D\u00f6viz Pozisyon Riski<\/h3>\nHindistan Rupisi, Filipin Pesosu, G\u00fcney Kore Wonu ve Tayland Baht\u0131 bu enerji \u015fokuna en a\u00e7\u0131k para birimleri. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de son enflasyon verisi enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle %3,4\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal eden Hindistan\u2019da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski art\u0131yor. Bu temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, s\u00f6z konusu para birimlerinde zay\u0131f seyrin s\u00fcrmesine zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.\n\n\u0130\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu durum, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bu para birimlerinde zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. KRW veya PHP\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan, riskin primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Alternatif olarak INR vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynama) daha do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; y\u00fckselen petrol ithalat faturas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine dayan\u0131yor.\n\n2025\u2019ten geriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2022 enerji krizinde benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f; petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselirken ayn\u0131 para birimleri belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnek, jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 bozulmaya devam ederse tekrar benzer bir performans ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi beklentisini destekliyor. Petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile bu para birimlerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki biliniyor.\n\nRiskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f genelle\u015ftik\u00e7e \u00c7in Yuan\u0131, Singapur Dolar\u0131 ve Malezya Ringgiti de etkileniyor. Bu ekonomilerin yap\u0131lar\u0131 farkl\u0131 olsa da b\u00f6lgesel \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 (flight to safety: daha az riskli varl\u0131klara ge\u00e7i\u015f) ve kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon etkisi bu para birimlerini de bask\u0131layabiliyor. Daha istikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu para birimlerindeki ikincil etkiler g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.\n\nMalezya gibi enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bir \u00fclkede bile olumsuz risk alg\u0131s\u0131, MYR\u2019nin y\u00fcksek petrol gelirinden gelebilecek y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabiliyor. Bu nedenle artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa oynayan stratejiler (\u00f6r. straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanma) SGD\u2019de de\u011ferlendirilebilir; piyasa korkusu artarsa CNH\u2019de (offshore yuan: \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) dikkatle kurgulanm\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi uzad\u0131k\u00e7a petrol risk primi kabar\u0131yor; Asya FX\u2019te k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k art\u0131yor. En zay\u0131f halka INR, PHP, KRW, THB. Oynakl\u0131k t\u0131rman\u0131rken CNY, SGD, MYR de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43679"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43679\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}